The deceleration of manufacturing is now in its ninth month, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index signaling the potential for further economic moderation from rising prices and slowing demand. A deeper dive into the RSM survey suggests that geopolitical uncertainty and a resurgent ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Geopolitical tensions and possibility of a midcycle slowdown
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index increased in March but is showing signs of impending economic damage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those warning signs may be creating the conditions for a classic midcycle slowing in overall manufacturing sentiment and activity. Our index is a ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Omicron’s dampening effect
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index receded again in January, providing another indication of the direct effect of the omicron variant on the business community and a sign of the eventual moderation of the post-crisis surge in growth. While the manufacturing sector continued to grow, the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion continues despite omicron, supply chain uncertainty
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remained solid in December at 1.3 standard deviations above neutral as the economy continued to expand into the end of the year. But that strength is in question as the omicron variant continues to spread. Our index moderated during December, mostly on a slump ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: November was a good month
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index in November reached its highest level since the spring, indicating a sustained economic recovery should the health crisis not get in the way. Despite snarled global supply chains that have made obtaining goods challenging, the domestic manufacturing sector ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion hits headwinds
The recovery of the manufacturing sector in the United States remained intact in October, with expectations for the expansion to continue over the next six months. Surveys of manufacturing activity conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks reported increases in new orders despite backlogs, longer ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: An expansion moderated by supply chain and labor constraints
Manufacturing conditions in September remain far above recession levels, suggesting a positive outlook for the economic expansion. Yet surveys of manufacturers conducted by five of the regional Federal Reserve banks once more pointed to supply chain and labor issues and a reassessment of their ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
This has been a durables-led recovery, with employment in the manufacturing sector back to 97% of its pre-pandemic levels. But after a year of rapid growth, there are signs that the buoyancy among manufacturers is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Confirmation of recovery despite supply chain constraints
Despite disruption to global supply chains and increasing delivery times, orders for durable goods increased again in June, the 13th month of increases out of the past 14 months, according to Commerce Department data released on Tuesday. This is confirmation of a recovery for the sector and the end ... READ MORE >
RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index: New orders, sales and sentiment imply economic expansion has begun
If manufacturing were the sole determinant of the business cycle, we might anticipate a quicker assignment to the official end of the 2020-21 recession. For now, we’ll have to settle for increasing confidence in a sustainable recovery as an indication that the economy has entered into expansionary ... READ MORE >