The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, with household ... READ MORE >
trade war
As global economy slows, populism looms as long-term threat
The global economy has been buffeted recently by trade tensions between the United States and China and slowing growth. But a greater risk looms around the world in the form of rising populism that threatens to unravel the postwar economic order, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM at a recent ... READ MORE >
Looking to 2020: Consumer is king amid slowing growth
The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, ... READ MORE >
Think China is paying for tariffs? Guess again
The U.S. Customs and Border Patrol is on pace to collect more than $72 billion in import duties as a result of U.S. tariffs so far this year. An oft-repeated claim is that China is paying the cost of these new duties. But we have data showing exactly who is paying--U.S. businesses and ... READ MORE >
Trade war takes dangerous turn toward currency wars: What could happen next?
Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities permitted the yuan early this week to slip below the important psychological level of 7 to the dollar for the first time since 2008. It was a retaliatory measure by China against President Trump’s threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese ... READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
Many who have watched the growing trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's largest trading partners, have been fast and loose with terminology since tensions began to heat up in early 2018. While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the ... READ MORE >