The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, … … READ MORE >
trade war
As global economy slows, populism looms as long-term threat
The global economy has been buffeted recently by trade tensions between United States and China and slowing growth. But a greater risk looms around the world in the form of rising populism that threatens to unravel the postwar economic order, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. … READ MORE >
Looking to 2020: Consumer is king amid slowing growth
The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. … READ MORE >
Think China is paying for tariffs? Guess again
So far in 2019, the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol is on pace to collect more than $72 billion in import duties as a result of U.S. tariffs. An oft-repeated claim is that China is paying the cost of the tariffs. But we have data showing exactly who is paying for the tariffs: U.S. businesses and households. … READ MORE >
Trade war takes dangerous turn toward currency wars: What could happen next?
Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities permitted the yuan early this week to slip below the important psychological level of 7 to the dollar for the first time since 2008. It was a retaliatory measure by China against President Trump’s threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese exports, beginning Sept. 1. The Chinese government also ordered a halt to all purchases of U.S. crops. … READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >