The Treasury’s need to sell $1.1 trillion in debt along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two will push interest rates higher, raising the cost of doing business. … READ MORE >
Treasury bills
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Pricing in the December debt cliff
Despite the recent legislative passage of a 10-year infrastructure investment plan, Congress and the Biden administration are no closer to an agreement on lifting the debt ceiling. … READ MORE >
In a possible sign of things to come, looming debt-ceiling crisis induces a flight to cash
The front end of the Treasury curve is flashing red because of the possibility of another black swan event—the threat of default on Treasury securities on or around Oct. 18. … READ MORE >