Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Treasury yields
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Recent increase shows progress on the path to normalization
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is approaching 1.7%, within 20 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. The move higher is in response to signs of an economic recovery and perceived risks around inflation. But sub-2% 10-year interest rates are far from what a healthy economy would support. … READ MORE >
American peak growth? Here is some much-needed context
One of the stories driving conversation today in financial markets, especially among fixed-income participants, is the idea that U.S. growth has peaked and that is why bond yields have declined recently. This discussion needs some context. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: 10-year Treasury yield pushes above 1%
Yields broke past 1% overnight Tuesday and traded in a range on Wednesday. They did not move sharply following the civil unrest in Washington. We expect the 10-year yield to end the year at 1.29%, which is up from the 1.073% at the time of this writing. … READ MORE >