The Treasury yield curve has steepened, with 2-year Treasury bond yields now below 3.70% … READ MORE >
Treasury yields
Market Minute: Global yields on the rise
Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany and the U.S., as well as the prospect of greater government spending in Japan, have pushed long-dated yields higher in global fixed-income markets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar and yields diverge as investors shy from long-dated debt
Rising risk around tariffs, slower growth, higher inflation and lower rates are creating conditions where investors appear to be shying away from long-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why global bond yields are rising
Unfunded tax cuts, outlays on defense and infrastructure as well as rising inflation expectations are pushing global bond yields higher, which will put at risk private sector investment. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Money markets signal an easing in 10-year yields
A look at the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in comparison with the Treasury term premium implies room for further easing in long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing currency risk in an era of regime change
We expect the international investment community to continue purchasing U.S. financial assets, and in particular to continue financing the U.S. budget and trade deficits. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: US term premium and higher yields
The decomposition of bond yields rests on two factors: first, expectations, or the average of future short-term interest rates; and second, a term premium that reflects compensation demanded by investors to hold riskier long-term bonds. Given that expectations are anchored by Federal Reserve policy guidance, approximately 80% of the recent increase in yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury can be attributed to the term premium, with only 20% credited to changing expectations of where short-term rates will be over the next 10 years. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >