Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Strong economic data signals another rate hike in July
A series of economic reports released on Thursday showed a much more resilient economy than expected heading into a crucial period when the Federal Reserve is on the verge of hiking interest rates again. … READ MORE >
Spending and inflation cool in May
Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve’s key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. … READ MORE >
Business equipment spending rises for the second straight month
Despite May’s top-line upside surprises in the durable goods report, our forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter stays at 1.8%. … READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims highest since November 2021
Initial jobless claims last week remained unchanged at 264,000, a figure that exceeded expectations and suggested that the robust labor market is softening. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits spike in May as sentiment improves
There were 1.6 million new housing starts in May—the most in two years and a 21.7% increase from the previous month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
What is most notable from Friday’s consumer sentiment data is the plunge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% from 4.2%, an enouraging sign for the Fed in its effort to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest since 2021
Total new filings for jobless benefits rose to 261,000 last week, the highest since October 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >