Despite May’s top-line upside surprises in the durable goods report, our forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter stays at 1.8%. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims highest since November 2021
Initial jobless claims last week remained unchanged at 264,000, a figure that exceeded expectations and suggested that the robust labor market is softening. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits spike in May as sentiment improves
There were 1.6 million new housing starts in May—the most in two years and a 21.7% increase from the previous month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
What is most notable from Friday’s consumer sentiment data is the plunge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% from 4.2%, an enouraging sign for the Fed in its effort to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest since 2021
Total new filings for jobless benefits rose to 261,000 last week, the highest since October 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls to six-month low
The top-line confidence level fell to 102.3 from an upwardly revised 103.7, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims edge up but fraud spurs big downward revisions
New filings for jobless benefits increased slightly by 4,000 last week, but the more noteworthy change was a significant downward revision in the previous two reports from the Labor Department. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims drop as fraud claims are resolved
New filings for jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000 from 264,000, a sharp 8.3% drop, in part because of the resolution of fraudulent claims in Massachusetts. … READ MORE >