The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
Producer prices rise 0.2%, but signs still point to lower inflation in Fed’s key gauge
Despite the producer price index coming in stronger than expected on Friday, the Federal Reserve's most important measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, should remain near zero in June when it is released on July 26. Read more of RSM's insights on inflation, the economy and ... READ MORE >
Further disinflation in the June consumer price index points to a Fed rate cut
Disinflation in energy and core goods has been the underlying inflation narrative over the past 18 months, and that continued to be the case in the consumer price index for June. Declines in gasoline prices, used cars and trucks, transportation and commodities caused a 0.1% decline in the top-line CPI ... READ MORE >
U.S. harmonized index of consumer prices: A more accurate metric of disinflation?
Part of a central bank’s challenge in setting its policy rate lies in knowing which measure of inflation to follow. From the consumer price index to the personal consumption expenditures index, different measures of inflation can tell a different story. On Friday, investors and policymakers will ... READ MORE >
PCE inflation preview: From noise to norm, rate cuts are on the horizon
Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. This will appear in the forecast table as a 0.10% estimate. But we ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index cools in May as gas and transportation costs decline
A gradual cooling in inflation in May because of a 3.6% decline in gasoline prices, a 1.1% drop in transportation costs and 0.5% easing in the cost of new vehicles shows that the rise in inflation at the start of the year was more noise than signal. Overall, the consumer price index increased by 3.3% ... READ MORE >
CPI resumes disinflationary trend in April amid weakened retail sales
The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve's effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Retail sales, in another key report released on Wednesday, indicated a much weaker April, explaining the extended ... READ MORE >
Hot inflation data dims prospects for a Fed rate cut in June
The U.S. consumer price index came in above expectations for March, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position as it seeks to starting cutting interest rates this year. Both overall and core inflation remained unchanged at 0.4% monthly, the third consecutive month that the overall CPI ... READ MORE >
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
The consumer price index increased at a robust rate in February for the second month in a row though this increase was not a surprise given the recent rise in gasoline prices, and, more importantly, the noise in housing inflation data. The top-line and core CPI numbers both grew at 0.4% on the ... READ MORE >