The effective tariff rate in the United States now stands at 23% following Wednesday’s announcements of new tariffs, with the trade-weighted average mean currently resting at 18%. … READ MORE >
U.S. dollar
Trade war turning FX traders bearish on the dollar
Currency trader positioning is turning bearish on the dollar and becoming more bullish on the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as the U.S. prepares to launch a multinational trade war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: FX volatility dampening dollar valuation vs. peso and rupee
A Black-Scholes model of one-month at-the-money implied volatility options against the Mexican peso and Indian rupee suggests that investors are expecting a last-minute deal that would lower the impact of the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The dollar’s role as a reserve currency does not lead to overvaluation
If policies are adopted to devalue the dollar and end its reserve status, they would only damage American businesses and consumers. … READ MORE >
Market minute: There is no alternative to the U.S. dollar
The dollar remains the currency of choice for emerging markets. The dollar’s percentage share of emerging market bonds stands at 86.3% and is 81.7% of all credit. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rates in Europe and Japan signaling a stronger euro and yen
The dollar’s recent five-month appreciation versus the euro appears to have topped out, reversing the dollar’s move toward parity. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The policy determinants of the rising euro
The euro is poised to appreciate against the dollar as the continent loosens fiscal restraints to rebuild its defenses. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The volatility smile in a time of trade disruption
One way to understand the financial impact of policy uncertainty is to look at the implied volatility of important bilateral currency pairs. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Canadian dollar remains under duress
Should higher tariffs on Canada announced by the United States take effect, we would expect the value of the loonie to continue depreciating against the dollar. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Clash of the titans to cause further currency manipulation
The relative yield differentials between the U.S. and China point to the possibility that China will engineer a gradual, but large, depreciation in the yuan this year. … READ MORE >