The Trump administration’s policies will cause the trade and current account deficits to widen, not narrow. … READ MORE >
U.S. dollar
Morning market minute: India’s rising capital buffer and the end of its currency peg
As India has gained prominence in the global economy, its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has wisely increased the level of foreign exchange holdings. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The end of the Indian rupee’s effective dollar peg
With the rupee trading at or near all-time lows and the Reserve Bank of India’s real effective exchange rate at all-time lows, the 2022-2024 de-facto exchange rate peg maintained by the RBI has ended. … READ MORE >
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. … READ MORE >
Servicing external debt in a strong-dollar environment
The dollar’s strength is coming at price for emerging markets, which must pay more to service their external debt. … READ MORE >
Global currency reserves: BRIC economies not supplanting U.S. any time soon
O about $12.5 trillion in total global currency reserves, China accounts for but a fraction with $245 billion. The United States, by contrast, accounts for $6.67 trillion. … READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
We see a nascent dollar trading bloc forming out of need to protect essential industries. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
Why a strong dollar is in America’s best interests
A strong dollar not only means that there is a healthy demand for American-made goods and services, but, perhaps more important, it is also a show of confidence in the U.S. government and financial institutions. … READ MORE >
Intervening in foreign exchange markets: The poverty of dollar devaluation
We think intervening to devalue the dollar would be folly. In the end, the result would be upward pressure on prices, reduced demand and, ultimately, a slowing economy. … READ MORE >