Our forecast for the May consumer price index implies an increase of 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago, along with a decline in real wages of 0.8% over the past 12 months … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Market Minute: Americans still have the travel bug
Despite surging air fares, airline demand remains on a solid trajectory that looks like the strong years of 2024 and 2025. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Inflation heats up as stress on households grows
The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation embedded in the fabric of our lives
Repercussions from the supply shock continue to spread, with cross-market implications for both synthetic and organic fibers that will disrupt global apparel supply chains. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A new inflation regime awaits Warsh
Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation swaps are underpricing risk of rising CPI
We expect April’s top-line CPI to increase by 0.7% on the month and by 3.7% from one year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are you experienced?
Households in the U.S. and Canada, whose economies have become net exporters of oil, have not been spared the rising cost of gasoline and diesel. … READ MORE >
In GDP and inflation data, an echo of what might have been
A year that was set to benefit from tailwinds associated with a large tax cut and a boom in artificial intelligence investment has been partially offset by the supply shock. … READ MORE >