Methodological changes to the monthly estimate of the birth-death model have injected volatility into the data. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report
Market Minute: U.S. March jobs report preview
We expect the March employment report to show an increase of 60,000 jobs with risk of a modestly stronger print when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the data on Friday. … READ MORE >
The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February amid strikes and residual weakness
The weak February employment data puts the first dent in the low-fire, low-hire framework that has defined the American labor market. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. February jobs report preview
We forecast a net increase in total employment of 70,000 positions, supported by sustained growth in health care and private education. … READ MORE >
Jobs report shows that slow-hire, slow-fire remains base case
The American economy added 130,000 jobs in January, enough to push the unemployment rate down to 4.3% amid a large downward revision in total employment from April 2024. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: January jobs report preview
We expect an increase in total employment of 60,000 jobs for January with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. … READ MORE >
December jobs report shows the no-fire, slow-hire economy at work
In December, 50,000 new jobs were created and the unemployment rate declined to 4.4% from a revised November estimate of 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect December hiring to increase
We are forecasting a total gain of 100,000 jobs for December and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% when the jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
The jobs data is out. If you are not confused, you are not paying attention.
Little clarity was provided by the combined October and November jobs data. The low-fire, low-hire jobs market remains intact as the unemployment rate continues to climb. … READ MORE >
October and November jobs preview: A most unusual report
We expect a net increase in total employment of 120,000 over the two months, including an increase of 80,000 jobs in the October report and a slowing to 40,000 in November. … READ MORE >