The U.S. economy is in a good spot heading into the second half of 2026 as the labor market is at full employment while job growth and wages do not imply second-round risks to the economy via the inflation channel. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report
Market Minute: Lagging wages are the root of the affordability crisis
Although core inflation looks a bit more benign than topline inflation, RSM expects July’s U.S. labor data to reflect flat growth in real wages amid an ongoing affordability crisis. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What’s behind the U.S. labor market strength?
Since December 2024, 594,000 jobs have been created in health care and 411,000 in social assistance, much of it to serve an aging population. … READ MORE >
Revisions and noise push jobless rate down to 4.2%
Take the June jobs report of 57,000 new hires with a grain of salt. Expect an upward revision to this figure when the July data is released. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: We expect a gain of 180,000 jobs in June
The gains will be driven by health care, education, government, leisure and hospitality, as well as the goods-producing and construction sectors. … READ MORE >
American rite of spring: Strong job gains and falling wages
Friday’s strong jobs report, which had a 4.3% unemployment rate and modest nominal wage growth, provided a fast-paced opening movement to that symphony that will be followed by a far more complex inflation report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect hiring to edge higher amid soft wage growth
We are forecasting that the jobs report for May will show an increase of 95,000 new positions with risk of a quicker pace. … READ MORE >
In April jobs report, a solid, steady and stable labor market
The economy added 115,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. April jobs report preview
Our forecast for the U.S. employment report for April expects an increase of 60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Hiring surged in March but the underlying trend was softer
Methodological changes to the monthly estimate of the birth-death model have injected volatility into the data. … READ MORE >