Top-line initial claims for unemployment benefits increased to 770,000 versus an expected decline to 700,000 for the week ending March 13, according to government data released Thursday. There were 282,394 new claims for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, and were 4.12 million continuing ... READ MORE >
unemployment
Making sense of inflation: What we can learn from post-recession recoveries
It's a central tenet of economics: We should expect prices to increase when the demand for goods and services increases, and to decline when demand diminishes. Price rigidity and the presence of product choices will dictate the speed at which price changes occur. This has held up in our analysis of the ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Expect the number to swell in coming weeks on benefits extension
First-time jobless claims remained elevated for the week ending March 6, arriving at 712,000, down from an upwardly revised 754,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The total number of people on some form of unemployment insurance increased to 20.1 million for the week ending ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.2% for February understates the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. After almost one year, these circumstances can be used to inform policymakers, investors and firm managers around ... READ MORE >
February employment report: The devil really is in the details
On first glance, the February jobs report appears to be a preview of coming attractions as the American economy reflates and the fiscal firepower about to be unleashed turbocharges growth this year. While that is likely true, the underlying composition of the jobs report released by the U.S. Labor ... READ MORE >
February jobs preview: Winter doldrums ahead of a springtime rebound
We expect a total increase in employment of 105,000 jobs for February with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3% when the Labor Department releases its monthly data on Friday. The primary narrative for the month will be the contrast between the true level of unemployment in the economy and the ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Only cold comfort for those out of work
Seasonal distortions caused a larger-than-expected decline in first-time jobless claims to 730,000 for the week ending Feb. 20, which significantly understates the true pace of first-time firings across the economy. We would urge policymakers to approach the decline with a grain of salt, which is ... READ MORE >
Second wave of the pandemic devastates the Canadian labor market
The surge in coronavirus infections in Canada this winter has taken a heavy toll on the economy, which has only added to the urgency for a vaccine to be widely distributed. Another 213,000 jobs were lost in January, an acceleration over December’s decline, according to data recently released by ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Official unemployment number doesn’t tell full pandemic story
Friday’s headline January U3 (official) unemployment rate of 6.3% almost certainly undercounts the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. Our estimate implies a real unemployment rate of 7.5%, which we acknowledge could be ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: A weak gain in jobs and a nonvirtuous decline in the jobless rate to 6.3%
The intense debate over whether there needs to be a large fiscal stimulus package was supplemented by a weak U.S. employment report for January that saw an anemic gain of 49,000 jobs while 406,000 people exited the workforce. That exodus of workers was the primary catalyst for a decline in the ... READ MORE >