Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.1% for April is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
unemployment
U.S. employment report: Economy added a disappointing 266,000 jobs in April
An easing of commercial restrictions, mass vaccinations and pent-up demand racing ahead of the overall reopening of the economy bolstered hiring in April to the tune of 266,000 jobs as the unemployment rate increased to 6.1%, according to government data released Friday. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More good news from the labor market
First-time jobless claims declined to 498,000 for the week of May 1 from an upwardly revised 590,000 during the previous week as continuing claims remained elevated at 3.69 million, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Employment report preview: Expect a gain of 1.4 million jobs in April
With nearly 150 million Americans having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, we expect a net increase in employment of roughly 1.4 million jobs in April, with risk of a much larger gain in private-sector employment. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%. … READ MORE >
March employment preview: Expect a gain of 1 million jobs
We expect a net increase in total employment of 1 million, with risk of a much larger gain, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8% when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop below 700,000 for first time in a year
While first-time claims remain elevated, they are moving in a constructive direction. … READ MORE >
Weekly jobless claims: A grim anniversary as claims rise to 770,000
Top-line initial claims for unemployment benefits increased to 770,000 versus an expected decline to 700,000 for the week ending March 13, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Making sense of inflation: What we can learn from post-recession recoveries
It can take an average of 27 months after a recession for inflation to return to normal as sustained economic growth is attained and inflation reaches its assumed 2% target. This implies that some of the recent concerns around inflation are premature. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Expect the number to swell in coming weeks on benefits extension
First-time jobless claims remained elevated for the week ending March 6, arriving at 712,000, down from an upwardly revised 754,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.2% for February understates the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >