First-time claims for jobless benefits declined to a still-elevated 779,000 for the week ending Jan. 30, while continuing claims dropped to 4.592 million for the previous week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. This is the third consecutive weekly decline and most likely reflects an ebbing in ... READ MORE >
unemployment
Employment report preview: Policy implications paramount following January data
We expect that the December employment downturn will be a one-month occurrence and that the January data, to be released Friday, will show a gain of 190,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6%. It is almost certain that the Labor Department's report will have a larger impact on ... READ MORE >
Fourth-quarter GDP: Growth eases as economy decelerates
The American economy posted 4% growth in the fourth quarter as the recovery from the depths of the pandemic decelerated into the end of 2020, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. While a growth rate at such heights would normally be reason to celebrate, it represents a major disappointment and ... READ MORE >
First-time jobless claims remain elevated
Initial jobless claims declined to 900,000 for the week ending Jan. 16, down from 965,000 the week before but well above the pre-pandemic high established in 1982. Roughly 423,000 people applied for first-time federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which implies that more than 1.3 million people ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Longer-term stagnation in the labor force
The December labor report and the overall decrease of 140,000 jobs was, by most accounts, a pause in the progress made during the past six months. The composition of the report released on Friday was almost all determined by the loss of 498,000 employees in the leisure and hospitality sector, with a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. If one adjusts the estimate to account for these circumstances, the unemployment rate ... READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. This data, released by the Labor Department on Friday, will tend to ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms
First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. First-time claims for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rest at 161,400. Continuing claims fell to ... READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We expect the December U.S. employment report to reflect the strains across the real economy associated with the pandemic, which intensified during the final month of the year. We now anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The vanishing worker
The domestic labor market is approaching a potential inflection point for millions of workers. The number of people unemployed for more than 26 weeks is rising, and they have only about a 10% probability of finding work at wages similar to what they earned before their extended unemployment. The ... READ MORE >