The long-term economic scarring of the pandemic -- mostly among small businesses in leisure and hospitality, food and beverage, and retail -- will dampen wage growth over the next few years. One way to see this dynamic is with the Beveridge curve, which illustrates a downward-sloping relationship ... READ MORE >
unemployment
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday's headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. By adjusting the number of unemployed to include the number of people who are not in the labor force ... READ MORE >
U.S. November employment report: Winter is coming
The recall of workers and job creation continued to slow in November to 245,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.7%, just ahead of what is likely to be a pandemic-induced drag on domestic labor market conditions over the next few months. Current lockdown measures, reflected by the churn ... READ MORE >
Pre-holiday data deluge: A November to remember
A series of economic reports released on Wednesday captured the cross currents in the American economy: Jobless claims increase First-time jobless claims rose for the second consecutive week, with the top line increasing to 778,000 for the week ending Nov. 21, up from 742,000 previously, according to ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: Data going wrong way as pandemic intensifies
Initial jobless claims increased by 742,000 for the week ending Nov. 14 as the pandemic intensified and lockdowns spread across the economy. Continuing claims increased to 6.37 million, while 20.3 million people remain on some form of unemployment insurance, according to Labor Department data released on ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday's headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.9% understates the number of out-of-work people, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. In our estimation, this needs to be taken into account by policymakers around decisions on fiscal stimulus and other policies to stimulate ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. In addition, the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.9% occurred even as 724,000 workers re-entered ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. While we anticipate a solid number, it is equally clear that the recall of workers is slowing and that the number of ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Modest improvement, but levels still elevated
First-time jobless claims continued to show modest improvement with the top-line figure arriving at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 31. That is down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 758,000, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. After adding in the 382,883 people who ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: What’s the real unemployment rate?
Estimates from the Department of Labor indicate that the pace of re-employment is slowing. Monthly increases in nonfarm payrolls fell for the third straight month, to 661,000 in September from nearly 1.5 million in August, and the unemployment rate decreased to 7.9%. But that decline masks the ... READ MORE >