Since the summer, the labor force has been shrinking by up to 3% on a year-over-year basis. Should the pandemic drag on, there is the potential of more and more of the labor force becoming discouraged, ending efforts to look for work. … READ MORE >
unemployment
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms
First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. … READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the jobs report is released Friday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The vanishing worker
The domestic labor market is approaching a potential inflection point for millions of workers. The number of people unemployed for more than 26 weeks is rising, and they have about a 10% probability of finding work at wages similar to what they earned before their extended unemployment. … READ MORE >
Damp wage growth is a Beveridge served cold
The long-term economic scarring of the pandemic — mostly among small businesses in leisure and hospitality, food and beverage, and retail — will dampen wage growth over the next few years. One way to see this dynamic is with the Beveridge curve, which illustrates a downward-sloping relationship between a higher … … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
U.S. November employment report: Winter is coming
The recall of workers and job creation continued to slow in November to 245,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.7%, just ahead of what is likely to be a pandemic-induced drag on domestic labor market conditions over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Pre-holiday data deluge: A November to remember
Among a series of economic reports released on Wednesday, first-time jobless claims increased for the second consecutive week, with the top line increasing to 778,000 for the week ending Nov. 21, up from 742,000 previously, … READ MORE >