The pace of first-time claims for unemployment insurance declined to an elevated 787,000 for the week ending Oct. 17, strongly suggesting that the economy is slowing in the fourth quarter. Continuing claims remained elevated at 8.37 million, which implies an insured unemployment rate of 5.7%, ... READ MORE >
unemployment
Jobless claims continue to rise to highest level since August
U.S. labor market dynamics are clearly in an unusual place. The four-week moving average of first-time claims for unemployment insurance stands at 866,250, well above the monthly hiring pace of 661,000 posted in September and the highest since August. It will most likely be well above the top-line hiring ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention
Pandemic economics has brought about an interesting conundrum: The pace of firings in the economy remains above the monthly hiring data as the unemployment rate falls. Over the past six weeks, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have averaged 867,000, which clearly points to a stalling out of ... READ MORE >
Permanent job losses mount as pandemic endures
The number of people in the United States who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown are not tethered to any economic reality. With the Sept. ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Rehiring slows as permanent job losses pile up
While the U.S. economy has rebounded and a nascent recovery is underway, the pace of workers being recalled is slowing and gains in the labor market are likely to become more difficult to come by. Essentially, the first order derivative (the rate of change) of growth is positive as the economy ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Improvement stalls at elevated levels
It’s becoming clear that the improvement in the pace of firings has stalled as states continue to work through backlogs of claims for unemployment insurance and as filings for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance increase. There were 837,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 26, ... READ MORE >
September jobs report preview: Expect the recall of workers to slow
We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. While we do not expect a complete collapse in the pace of recalled workers (that may be an October and ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: No meaningful improvement in the pace of firings
The pace of first-time jobless claims over the past few weeks denotes some slowing in the easing of firings across the economy. The stalling out suggests that the easy gains of the recovery’s early stages are likely in the rear-view mirror and the hard work of digging out of the economic abyss lies ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain elevated at 860,000
The pace of firings in the U.S. economy remains well above anything observed during the Great Financial Crisis as 860,000 workers filed for first-time jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, a reflection of the deep scarring in the domestic labor market and economy. An additional 658,737 filed for ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Jobless claims are persistent drag on economic recovery
Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of Americans are unemployed and face longstanding ... READ MORE >