The official unemployment rate in our estimation noticeably understates what we call the pandemic unemployment rate, which we estimate is 9.2%. … READ MORE >
unemployment
First-time jobless claims decline to 787,000, implying modest improvement
The pace of first-time claims for unemployment insurance declined to an elevated 787,000 for the week ending Oct. 17, strongly suggesting that the economy is slowing in the fourth quarter. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims continue to rise to highest level since August
The four-week moving average of first-time claims for unemployment insurance stands at 866,250, which is well above the monthly hiring pace of 661,000 that was posted in September and will likely be well above the top-line hiring number in October. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention
Pandemic economics has brought about an interesting conundrum: The pace of firings in the economy remains above the monthly hiring data as the unemployment rate falls. Over the past six weeks, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have averaged 867,000. … READ MORE >
Permanent job losses mount as pandemic endures
The number of people who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery are misplaced. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Rehiring slows as permanent job losses pile up
While the U.S. economy has rebounded and a nascent recovery is underway, the pace of workers being recalled is slowing and gains in the labor market are likely to become more difficult to come by. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Improvement stalls at elevated levels
There were 837,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 26, and 1.487 million if one includes the 650,000 first-time claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
September jobs report preview: Expect the recall of workers to slow
We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: No meaningful improvement in the pace of firings
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 19 arrived at 870,000, up from 860,000 during the previous week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain elevated at 860,000
The pace of firings in the economy remains well above anything observed during the Great Financial Crisis as 860,000 workers filed for first-time jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, a reflection of the deep scarring in the domestic labor market and economy. … READ MORE >