In the war film “Tora! Tora! Tora!” U.S. Navy Captain John Earle refused to act in defense of Pearl Harbor until he received confirmation of an attack even as American naval assets exploded all around him. As such, some important policymakers appear to be waiting on confirmation that the U.S. ... READ MORE >
unemployment
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: Even with overall drop, nine states have big increases
Despite the overall drop in initial jobless claims in the latest week to 1.5 million, there were still nine states that reported significant increases in first-time applications for unemployment benefits. Yet 12 states reported significant decreases, which leaves a majority of states reporting ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: More questions than answers
It would be a mistake for policymakers or investors to discount the weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday in light of the recall of 2.7 million people to work in the May U.S. employment report. Over the past 12 weeks, 44.1 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, which is roughly ... READ MORE >
The coronavirus and civil unrest have highlighted the racial disparity in the American labor market
The economic fallout from the coronavirus and the recent civil unrest have placed an uneasy spotlight on the disparity in employment opportunities among ethnic groups in the United States. While the overall U.S. unemployment rate declined to 13.3% in May, black Americans saw it increase to 16.8%, up ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Recalled workers increase by 2.7 million in surprise lift to labor market
The nascent awakening of the U.S. economy in May resulted in 2.7 million workers being recalled to their jobs, 2.5 million jobs created and a decline in the unemployment rate to 13.3%. The impressive number of recalled workers implies three takeaways from the May employment report: The Paycheck ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall in most states, but the damage has been done
Almost every state had a decline in initial jobless claims in the last week of May, as a ninth week was added to the trend of decreasing yet still substantial household economic misery. California and Florida were the only two states reporting significant increases in first-time filings for ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Some good news amid continued carnage
The pace of first-time jobless claims declined for the ninth consecutive week, to 1.83 million, bringing the cumulative total of those who have lost jobs over the past 11 weeks to 42.6 million. In the era of pandemic economics, this is what constitutes good news. To put that in perspective, there are ... READ MORE >
Preview: May U.S. employment report
We expect the U.S. economy to shed 7.8 million jobs and the unemployment rate to reach 21.5% when the May U.S. employment estimate is released on Friday. To put this in the proper context, the near real-time data implies that greater than 40 million people have lost employment and income in less than ... READ MORE >