Even though the CARES Act provides a stimulus package of $2.39 trillion, or 11.4% of gross domestic product — along with a relaxing of rules surrounding payment deferrals and loan modifications by banking regulators — that may not be enough to blunt the continued decline in economic activity. … READ MORE >
unemployment
U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March as shutdown takes hold
Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come. The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression. … READ MORE >
The state-by-state toll of the coronavirus shutdown on the labor market
The widespread layoffs of American workers worsened in the third week of the coronavirus shutdown, with all states (with the exception of the Virgin Islands) now having reported a significant increase in initial jobless claims at some point during the three-week period. … READ MORE >
Tectonic shift in initial jobless claims implies 10.1% unemployment rate
The tectonic shifts in the American labor market continued during the week ending March 28 as first-time jobless claims increased by 6.64 million. … READ MORE >
Expect initial jobless claims to surge this week as coronavirus spreads
When the new figures for initial jobless claims are announced this week, they will jump above the cyclical high of 665,000 set during the recovery from the Great Recession and the all-time high of 695,000 set in October 1982. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Last estimate before coronavirus impact
We expect an increase of 178,000 in total employment when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first estimate of nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. … READ MORE >
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. Analysis of the payroll data outside of the traditional focus on the latest monthly number shows some cracks in the decade-long recovery from the 2007-09 Great Recession, pointing to long-term issues that will likely need to be addressed by monetary and fiscal policymakers. … READ MORE >
U.S. added 145,000 jobs in December as women now outnumber men in the workforce
Hiring in the economy closed out the year with a gain of 145,000 jobs in December, making for a overall increase of 2.1 million in 2019, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That figure represents a modest decline compared to a gain of 2.7 million in 2018 and is down from the cyclical high of a little more than 3 million jobs added in 2014. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
US July employment report: “A Gentleman’s C”
Downward revisions to the May and June estimate of total employment as well as a decline in total and aggregate hours worked cast a pall over a total change in July employment of 123,000 (164,000 top line less net downward revision of 41,000) and the unemployment rate that held steady … … READ MORE >