The pandemic and the economic shutdown it prompted have injected an inordinate amount of noise into the economic data, making policy judgments—which are always difficult—far more challenging. With those challenges, the risk of large errors that carry significant ramifications for the economy is ... READ MORE >
wages
A K-shaped wage environment: Abnormalities in wage and benefit growth during the pandemic
The economic distortions of the pandemic are becoming increasingly evident in the divergent fortunes of U.S. workers. At first glance, the news seems to be good: Hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers have been rising at a 4.5% year-over-year rate for the past five months, far above the 2.5% average ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Small business optimism fades and wage stagnation hits employees
The National Federation of Independent Business compensation index points toward wage stagnation as small firms adjust to an impaired U.S. economy. Similar to what occurred following the Great Recession, we expect wage stagnation to characterize the compensation outlook for some time. Even essential ... READ MORE >
Employment in black and white: Wage inequality
The American condition, no matter how one measures it, inevitably comes back to jobs and wages. Wage inequality, whether between men and women, or African-Americans and whites, is a real concern. Civil unrest in 350 of the 390 major metropolitan areas of the United States is not only a function of ... READ MORE >
Despite strong consumer spending, higher costs bite into consumer margins
Even as trade disputes and other economic headwinds surface in 2019, the U.S. consumer has held strong and continues to fuel growth in the domestic economy, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Another ... READ MORE >
Wage growth and the end of business cycles
Wage growth during the current business cycle has been weak compared to the past several economic expansions. The May U.S. employment report implied a growth rate in wages of 3.1%, which was accompanied by a 2.73% three-month average annualized pace, pointing to broader deceleration in the growth of ... READ MORE >