Two-year Treasury yields have increased by 85 basis points, to 4.23%, since the last day of trading before the Iran war. … READ MORE >
yield curve
Market Minute: The bond market starts to bite back
In the 13 weeks since the war in Iran began, the yields on 2-year and 5-year Treasury bonds have increased by 64 basis points, closing at 4.0% and 4.14% last Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A normal yield curve to start the year
U.S. interest rates have normalized as the economy and investors have adjusted to the regime change of rates remaining higher for longer. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The impact of policy expectations on the yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has shifted downward at the short end of the curve, with 2-year and 5-year Treasury notes dropping roughly 75 basis points this year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The normalization of rates and the steeper yield curve
The Treasury yield curve has steepened, with 2-year Treasury bond yields now below 3.70% … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Why productivity and workers hold the key to growth
Economic growth amid high interest rates depends on two major factors: rising productivity and growth in the labor supply. … READ MORE >
The increased attractiveness of corporate bonds as the Fed cuts rates
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of gravity
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index turned positive in January and has centered at 0,25 standard deviations above zero since March, indicating the normal level of risk priced into financial securities. … READ MORE >
Rates outlook: As economy enters glide path, bond market hedges its bets
Even as the economy shows positive trends like slowing inflation and a healthy labor market, the bond market is showing anxiety. … READ MORE >