The disinflation trend continued to stall in November, according to the most recent consumer price index data released on Wednesday. November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and a cause ... READ MORE >
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Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
A robust 0.4% increase in personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income in October underscore just how strong the economy and households have been ahead of the critical holiday spending season. But at the same time, the strong spending and income data, released on Wednesday by the Commerce ... READ MORE >
Falling jobless claims and firmer inflation point to slower rate cuts
The impact of two major hurricanes and labor strikes in the past two months on initial jobless claim data has completely faded, as the metric fell to 217,000 last week, lower than the pre-pandemic average. The continued drop in new filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, should suggest ... READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises on improved outlook for inflation and spending
The rebound in consumer sentiment to the highest level in four months, as seen in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released on Friday, is encouraging as the outlook for inflation and spending improved. As inflation continues to moderate—seen also in the survey’s results—and ... READ MORE >
Producer inflation and initial jobless claims stabilize further
While the producer price index came out slightly higher than forecasted at 0.3% on the month and 1.7% on a year-ago basis on Thursday, it remained on a moderating trend with July’s number being revised down. For 18 consecutive months, producer inflation has been in the 2% range or below on a year-ago ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
Disinflation, strong household consumption and incomes rising above the rate of inflation continue to be the defining narrative of the U.S. economy as it heads into the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, ... READ MORE >