May income, spending and inflation data points toward a consumer adjusting to a more challenging economic environment and should dampen talk of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September. … READ MORE >
Search Results for: inflation
Market Minute: Supply shocks and inflation expectations
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventory cushion may be holding down inflation
Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
Large declines in energy prices dampen a modest increase in inflation
Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
U.S. spending and inflation ease as companies slam the brakes on imports
American spending moderated in April as U.S. businesses pulled back significantly on imports after months of pulling forward economic activity to avoid higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Inflation falls in Canada as end of consumer carbon tax offsets other increases
Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.7% in April thanks to the removal of the consumer carbon price and lower crude oil prices. For now, price increases associated with U.S. tariffs seem to have been kept at bay. The end of the consumer carbon tax should continue to apply … … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising inflation expectations could send yields higher today
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >