Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Search Results for: inflation
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation swaps are underpricing risk of rising CPI
We expect April’s top-line CPI to increase by 0.7% on the month and by 3.7% from one year ago. … READ MORE >
In GDP and inflation data, an echo of what might have been
A year that was set to benefit from tailwinds associated with a large tax cut and a boom in artificial intelligence investment has been partially offset by the supply shock. … READ MORE >
Producer inflation rises less than forecast
March producer prices rose by 0.5%, driven largely by energy costs. Oil prices have eased since, but supply disruptions are unlikely to fade anytime soon. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fed rate cuts on hold as inflation risks mount
Expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday while raising its inflation forecast and reducing its estimates for growth and employment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Great expectations and inflation dynamics
For years, near-term public expectations of inflation were largely discounted in favor of longer-term indicators. Not anymore. … READ MORE >