We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the employment report is released on Sept. 6. … READ MORE >
Powell at Jackson Hole: Policy pivot signals the start of rate cuts
The Fed will need to put forward an appropriate framework—including a possible new inflation target—to communicate the rapid changes affecting the economy to the public, policymakers and investors. … READ MORE >
The TIPS bond market sees 2.1% inflation over the next 10 years
The recent drop in both Treasury yields and TIPS yields are adding credence to the success of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to squeeze inflation out of the economy. … READ MORE >
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
US July CPI: Further moderation in inflation as Fed prepares policy pivot
Inflation continued to moderate in July as both topline and core inflation increased 0.2% while the former increased 2.9% from one year ago and the latter advanced 3.2%. The internals of the report tend to suggest that there will be further relief in the offing as housing and service inflation has plenty of room to ease further in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The case for a supersized 50 basis-point reduction at its next meeting on Sept. 18 has been bolstered by the recent market turmoil. … READ MORE >
Job creation slows in July as unemployment increases to 4.3%
U.S. job growth slowed in July as 114,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report to show a gain of 200,000 jobs
The second, and more important, element of the jobs report will be the direction of the unemployment rate, which has been rising as more people, lured by rising wages, enter the workforce. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation continues to ease in June as income and spending gain
Top-line inflation in the personal consumption expenditures index increased in June by 0.1% and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >