We expect a top-line gain in total employment of roughly 120,000 jobs, which is approximately 80,000 below what our model would otherwise imply. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The jobs data released Friday strongly suggests that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 at its next meeting. … READ MORE >
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the post-pandemic global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth or outright recession. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates to support a soft landing in the economy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 4.75% and 5% to protect full employment and preserve the soft landing in the economy. … READ MORE >
Real federal funds rate illustrates that Fed policy is restrictive
With underlying inflation having fallen to between 2% and 2.5%, and the federal funds rate standing at 5.5%, capital investment has become prohibitively expensive for many businesses. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Why the Fed’s pivot to lower rates matters
The Fed’s policy decision next week will put forward major changes to its outlook, including the dot plot, the Summary of Economic Projections and the language within the statement around economic conditions. … READ MORE >