A strong labor market, rising real wages and a 1% increase in disposable income bolstered household spending, which advanced by a sustainable 2.3%. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: U.S. top-line growth to show solid increase
The Fed will maintain its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% when it meets at the end of July. But we anticipate a change in the committee’s policy statement that will signal a rate cut is on the table in September. … READ MORE >
Why a strong dollar is in America’s best interests
A strong dollar not only means that there is a healthy demand for American-made goods and services, but, perhaps more important, it is also a show of confidence in the U.S. government and financial institutions. … READ MORE >
Further disinflation in the June consumer price index points to a Fed rate cut
The road is now open to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Broad-based core goods inflation along with easing energy and transportation costs all continue be the primary factors behind inflation’s decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to its current 3%. … READ MORE >
As economy cools, Fed needs to cut rates
This overall slowing should result in the Federal Reserve’s reducing its federal funds policy rate by 25 basis points in September and December, which would put it a range between 4.75% and 5%. … READ MORE >
Slower pace of hiring in June bolsters case for Fed rate cut
The June jobs report should send a signal to the Fed that with inflation sitting at 2.6%, conditions are aligning for a rate cut in September. … READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
We think it will soon be time for the Fed to cut rates to avoid unnecessary damage to jobs and economic growth. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge continues to cool in May as income increases by 0.5%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Malaise continues in June
The best that can be said about manufacturing activity in five regional Federal Reserve banks is that it has moved more-or-less sideways over the past three months. … READ MORE >
The de-risking of world trade: Industrial policy in an era of changing political economy
That time of free trade and the unfettered flow of capital has passed, and industrial policy will be the primary organizing framework for trade, technology transfers and global finance. … READ MORE >