Even as central banks cut policy rates and push rates down at the front end of the curve, investors are demanding a greater premium for holding longer-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Rising inflation, increased spending complicate Fed’s next decision
While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising input prices curb appetite for capital expenditure investment
Manufacturers continue to expect higher input prices while holding mixed expectations regarding capital expenditure in the next six months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Europe’s de-industrial moment
As China continues to flood its external market with cheap goods, Germany finds itself to be a willing partner, trading its low value-added manufacturing sector for the disinflation of cheap goods. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The $12 trillion repo market means de-dollarization is improbable
The euro, yuan, pound and yen do not have the adequate depth to support the liquidity needs of the global systematically important banks. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of relying on T-bills to finance the deficit
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Chinese deflation is not abating
Beijing’s current policies are likely to continue what is shaping up to be an extended period of private sector deleveraging. … READ MORE >
Powell opens door to September cut as Fed shifts to a balanced 2% target
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday gave investors and policymakers the words that they wanted to hear on a possible September rate cut. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. investment grade spread implies robust risk appetite
While the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped by 10 basis points since the end of April, investment-grade corporate bond yields have dropped by roughly 25 basis points. … READ MORE >