Job creation continued to cool in May as the economy created 139,000 jobs, just above the RSM forecast of 125,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: May jobs report to reflect a modest cooling
We expect a gain of 125,000 jobs and a modest increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% when the U.S. employment report for May is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Empty containers are piling up at Los Angeles-area ports
Based on discussions with those in our professional network and a visit to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, we expect that the plunge in imports will begin showing up in the real economy during the first two weeks of July. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar and yields diverge as investors shy from long-dated debt
Rising risk around tariffs, slower growth, higher inflation and lower rates are creating conditions where investors appear to be shying away from long-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Mentions of tariffs soar in earnings transcripts of middle market firms
Since last August, total mentions of tariffs in earning transcripts of Russell 3000 firms have increased from 91 to 5,071 in May using a three-month moving average. … READ MORE >
U.S. spending and inflation ease as companies slam the brakes on imports
American spending moderated in April as U.S. businesses pulled back significantly on imports after months of pulling forward economic activity to avoid higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Can businesses absorb the cost of tariffs?
Wherever the effective tariff rate ends up, any reduction in margins because of the significant increase in trade taxes will result in reduced growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why global bond yields are rising
Unfunded tax cuts, outlays on defense and infrastructure as well as rising inflation expectations are pushing global bond yields higher, which will put at risk private sector investment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Estimating tariff revenues on EU exports to the U.S.
Using Penn-Wharton’s tariff simulator one can estimate the revenue generation linked to a large tariff on all imports to the U.S. from the EU. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising duration premium points to heightened risk in long-dated debt
The 30-year swap is pointing toward greater risk in U.S. Treasury funding as trade and fiscal policies suggest higher inflation, rising interest rates and growing government deficits to fund a large tax cut. … READ MORE >