Recent events have caused a reset of investor expectations regarding what and when the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions remain a modest tailwind
Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index stands at 0.8 standard deviations above normal with room to improve in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Warsh will face a searing credibility test
How will the new Fed chair balance his stated receptiveness to rate cuts with the recent rise in inflation? … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Gas price volatility is an echo of past crises
Most recently, in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused disruptions to the energy supply chain, sending gasoline prices 60% higher. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate amid global uncertainty, domestic strain
The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent—a fifth consecutive hold—due to the elevated level of uncertainty around the direction of the domestic economy and the global financial implications of the war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >
Inflation outpaced wage growth in May as CPI rose by 4.2%
Inflation in May pushed past 4% for the first time in more than three years because of rising energy, gasoline, transportation and airfare costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock, CPI and falling real wages
Our forecast for the May consumer price index implies an increase of 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago, along with a decline in real wages of 0.8% over the past 12 months … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Smells like animal spirits
Surging capital expenditures will result in rising productivity, greater output and a robust labor market. … READ MORE >
American rite of spring: Strong job gains and falling wages
Friday’s strong jobs report, which had a 4.3% unemployment rate and modest nominal wage growth, provided a fast-paced opening movement to that symphony that will be followed by a far more complex inflation report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Americans still have the travel bug
Despite surging air fares, airline demand remains on a solid trajectory that looks like the strong years of 2024 and 2025. … READ MORE >