Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. … READ MORE >
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
With spreads on corporate bonds easing, borrowing by firms will bolster a sustained expansion and an economy that outperforms expectations this year. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
The American economy continued to show resilience in March, adding 303,000 jobs as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. … READ MORE >
Initial claims reflect remarkable job security in American economy
First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week. … READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Today, we think that the economy has reached full employment and that a virtuous cycle that bolsters productivity and dampens inflation is now possible. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: The Boeing effect takes a toll
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in March, reflecting sluggish activity across the production sector in general and the problems at Boeing in particular. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve’s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The primary takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement and forecast is that the Fed, along with other major central banks, are likely to provide a near-synchronized set of rate cuts this year and next. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. … READ MORE >
Should the U.S. ban imports of Chinese electric vehicles?
Should a pause or outright barrier on entry of Chinese EVs into the U.S. market happen, this should not lead companies to become complacent. … READ MORE >