We think intervening to devalue the dollar would be folly. In the end, the result would be upward pressure on prices, reduced demand and, ultimately, a slowing economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. monthly employment report: Hiring cools in April
Hiring cooled in April from the torrid pace of 269,000 jobs on average during the first three months of 2024 as the economy generated an average increase of 175,000 in total employment. … READ MORE >
GDP growth slows to 1.6% in first quarter, exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data
Overall growth in U.S. gross domestic product fell to 1.6% in the first quarter, but the slowdown was exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data, which provided a 1.2% drag on overall activity. … READ MORE >
Regime change: Businesses face higher costs in nominal and real terms
Whether it is high single-digit borrowing costs for large multinationals or double-digit financing costs for middle market firms, elevated interest rates have become a fact of life for firm managers. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery
Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. … READ MORE >
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
With spreads on corporate bonds easing, borrowing by firms will bolster a sustained expansion and an economy that outperforms expectations this year. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
The American economy continued to show resilience in March, adding 303,000 jobs as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. … READ MORE >
Initial claims reflect remarkable job security in American economy
First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week. … READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Today, we think that the economy has reached full employment and that a virtuous cycle that bolsters productivity and dampens inflation is now possible. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: The Boeing effect takes a toll
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in March, reflecting sluggish activity across the production sector in general and the problems at Boeing in particular. … READ MORE >