A confluence of recent events has set the stage for a significant increase in fiscal outlays this year that will boost growth in the American economy to 5.4% for the year, with risk to the upside. The upward revision comes after the Democrats captured control of the Senate by winning two runoff elections in Georgia, which has increased the freedom of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation poses little risk to the U.S. economic outlook
The inflation rate ticked up to 1.4% in December and the yield on 10-year Treasuries remained above 1% for the sixth straight day on Wednesday. These levels should be considered small victories in the normalization of the economy after a rough nine months of the pandemic. At this point, rent for shelter continues to deflate and a variety of core metrics ... READ MORE >
The case for assistance to state and local governments
More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place to offset the collapse in tax revenues. Although a windfall from capital gains ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Longer-term stagnation in the labor force
The December labor report and the overall decrease of 140,000 jobs was, by most accounts, a pause in the progress made during the past six months. The composition of the report released on Friday was almost all determined by the loss of 498,000 employees in the leisure and hospitality sector, with a majority of sectors experiencing modest to strong ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. If one adjusts the estimate to account for these circumstances, the unemployment rate would be substantially higher — 8.1% at a ... READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. This data, released by the Labor Department on Friday, will tend to affirm the Federal Reserve’s policy path that implies a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: 10-year Treasury yield pushes above 1%
It’s been an eventful first few days of trading in the new year. Most notably, the yield on 10-year Treasuries moved above 1% for the first time since the economic collapse in March, and following the runoff elections in Georgia on Tuesday that gave control of the Senate to Democrats. Yields broke past 1% overnight and traded in a range on Wednesday. They ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms
First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. First-time claims for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rest at 161,400. Continuing claims fell to 5.07 million. Seasonal factors at the turn of the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Residential construction spending remains robust
Residential spending has been rising since February of 2019, increasing by nearly 18% on a year-over-year basis in November. These strong numbers helped to lift construction spending by 0.9% overall in November, according to data released this week by the Commerce Department. The demand for housing was initially powered by the low interest rates put in ... READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We expect the December U.S. employment report to reflect the strains across the real economy associated with the pandemic, which intensified during the final month of the year. We now anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the report is released Friday. Average hourly earnings ... READ MORE >