The Real Economy Blog

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

@JoeBrusuelas

Joseph Brusuelas provides macroeconomic perspective to help RSM clients anticipate and address the unique issues and challenges facing their businesses and the industries in which they operate. In 2015, he helped launch The Real Economy, the only monthly economic report focused on the middle market, and helps lead the firm’s cutting-edge Industry Eminence Program.

Prior to joining RSM as chief economist, Joe was a senior economist at Bloomberg, LP and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group. During that time, he was named one of the 26 economists to follow by the Huffington Post. Joe has over 20 years of experience in finance and economics, with emphasis on analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

In addition to being a frequent author for RSM and media, Joe Brusuelas is the co-author of Forex Analysis and Trading: Effective Top-Down Strategies Combining Fundamental, Position, and Technical Analyses.

November retail sales not full of holiday cheer

by

The traditional holiday sales did not get off a robust start in November, which was most likely because of a late Thanksgiving holiday that pushed some spending into December. After peaking in mid-2019, overall retail sales will need to pick up in December to support growth anywhere near 2% in the current quarter. Given the noise around the data series ... READ MORE >

RSM Brexit Stress Index plunges as Johnson gains clear victory

by

Stress in the British financial markets plummeted as voters handed the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Johnson a clear victory on Thursday, signaling an end to years of gridlock over Brexit. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, dropped to an ... READ MORE >

Expect the Fed to stick to the script

by

We expect the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate in a range between 1.50% and 1.75% at the December FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The major interest of investors and policymakers will naturally be the movement in the dot plot, which we expect to move into alignment with the current policy rate, with 2020 to the midpoint of the current target ... READ MORE >

RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer

by

Stress in the UK financial markets continued to ease as the general election draws closer. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what ... READ MORE >

November employment: a boomer of a jobs report

by

Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. This is the twenty-first month in a ... READ MORE >

RSM Brexit Stress Index continues to ease

by

Stress in the British financial markets has been easing in the three weeks since the election announcement, continuing a holding pattern of sorts until there is more clarity on the political and economic fronts. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed ... READ MORE >

Early signals show continued decline for the leading indicator

by

Analysts are forecasting that Thursday’s release of the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator of U.S. growth will show a 0.2% decline for October, the third month in a row of negative growth. As the chart below illustrates, the leading indicator has been decelerating since last October on a year-over-year basis, and it is now flirting with zero ... READ MORE >