The Real Economy Blog

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

CHART OF THE DAY: Glory days for used car salesmen

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A confluence of trends linked to the pandemic – including the fleeing of millennials to the suburbs and a rising preference for private transportation – has driven the price of used automobiles up by the quickest monthly gain since 1969, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While inflation on a year-ago basis can’t crack 1.4%, the ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Pandemic economics, in 14 charts

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The bond market, and not the equity market, provides perhaps the best assessment of the future of the economy. And these days, no matter how you parse the data, the bond market is telling a clear story: The corporate sector and the broader economy remain at risk. This stress is bleeding into state and local governments, which face a decreasing ability to ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Vanishing public-sector education jobs

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One likely consequence of the failure by the political sector to agree on an additional round of fiscal aid will be further job losses. In our estimation, the hole blown in state and local balance sheets demands a $500 billion aid package to avoid laying off public sector workers including teachers, fire personnel and peace officers. Over the past six ... READ MORE >

Revising our growth forecast into 2021

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Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter growth forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% and our first quarter 2021 forecast to 2.1% because of a likely lack of fiscal aid that will affect the economy and a growing uncertainty around the U.S. election. Accordingly, we have adjusted our full-year growth estimate ... READ MORE >

Tracking the coronavirus: Preparing for the deluge

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More than 7.6 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus as of the first weekend of October, according to statistics site Worldometer. The rate of new infections is increasing again, reaching 43,600 cases per day (see the first figure below) with 100,000 new cases reported in the past two days. Given that many states do not report ... READ MORE >

Permanent job losses mount as pandemic endures

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The number of people in the United States who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown are not tethered to any economic reality. With the Sept. 30 expiration of some protections for workers under ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: The prime working age of discontent

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The country is undergoing simultaneous plagues that are creating an employment catastrophe for men in their prime working years. There is the coronavirus plague, which attacks the poorest and unhealthiest among us, and then there is the plague of discontent among men unable to find suitable employment. While women have joined the workforce en masse in ... READ MORE >