For every $10 that the price of oil declines per barrel, the price of gas declines by only $0.024 per gallon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: We expect a gain of 180,000 jobs in June
The gains will be driven by health care, education, government, leisure and hospitality, as well as the goods-producing and construction sectors. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Guns, butter and inflationary pressures
The increase in defense spending is boosting GDP and the labor market, but also adding pressure to inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What does the Dallas Fed trimmed mean tell us about inflation?
Investors will be looking at alternative measures like the Dallas Fed PCE trimmed mean, one of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s preferred inflation metrics. … READ MORE >
Inflation peaked in May—but return to pre-war levels not coming soon
While it is highly likely that U.S. inflation peaked in May, one should not anticipate a return to pre-war levels of inflation any time soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Yield curve pricing in a hawkish Fed
Two-year Treasury yields have increased by 85 basis points, to 4.23%, since the last day of trading before the Iran war. … READ MORE >
Surging equities and the trickle-up economy
We estimate that every dollar of stock market gains generates less than a penny of consumer spending—roughly 0.8 cents … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil inventories plunge to operational stress levels
Inventories of West Texas Intermediate crude held in Cushing, Okla., have fallen to 20 million barrels, the lowest point in a decade. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why so hawkish?
A simple look at PCE, core PCE, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and core PPI illustrates that they all reside above the current federal funds policy rate, not to mention the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. … READ MORE >
Fed tilts hawkish as Warsh promises price stability
While we think that the July FOMC meeting will be a status quo event, the September meeting will be a live policy meeting where the committee could see movement toward a rate hike if not an outright increase. … READ MORE >