Los Angeles-area seaports continued to process record numbers of shipping containers in June. Combined with the increase in intermodal rail freight, that’s a sign that the North American supply chain is up and running in support of an economic recovery, albeit with room to improve as global supply chain constraints unwind. The increases in seaport ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims back above 400,000 for the first time in four weeks
First-time jobless claims increased by 51,000 to 419,000 for the week ending July 3, according to government data released Thursday. The increase underscores the week-to-week noise in the data and is not indicative of any signal of an acceleration in the pace of firings. With the labor market so tight, we suspect that the increase is just seasonal ... READ MORE >
Negative-yielding debt back above $15 trillion globally as risk of delta variant rises
Last year, the issuance of negative-yielding debt generally declined as the global economy prepared to reopen. It was a sign from the investors that the worst of the pandemic would soon be over. But over the past 90 days, a different story has emerged, as rising economic and social risks linked to the delta variant around the world have rattled ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Foreign investment in U.S. securities rebounds
It has been six months since the Biden administration and the new Congress took charge of foreign and domestic policies, and foreign investment flows suggest a vote of confidence in the economy and its institutions. The latest data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) System indicates a 65% increase in net foreign long-term portfolio investment ... READ MORE >
Rising household debt vs. wealth: Cause for concern, or the foundation of economic renewal?
As the economy emerges from the pandemic, concerns about a debt hangover like the one that followed the financial crisis are proliferating. But with American household balance sheets the strongest in decades, we see little chance of a consumer debt hangover interrupting the current expansion anytime soon. The closer one looks at both the household and ... READ MORE >
June retail sales remain robust as economy runs hot
Retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, reflecting the broader narrative that underscores the American economy: Strong fundamentals around increasing employment, rising wages and savings will support a robust rebound as growth posts a cyclical peak in the second quarter. Overall growth will continue to support an expansion in the economy through 2023, ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index surges 5.4% in June as the economy reopens
The recent surge in domestic prices continued as consumer prices increased by 0.9% on a monthly basis and by 5.4% on a year-ago basis, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. While the increase in prices requires close monitoring by policymakers, the gains continue to be driven by a cluster of items -- energy, transportation (used car ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Vaccines and the pandemic in 6 charts
The emergence of the delta variant around the world and among the non-vaccinated population in the United States presents another round of economic risks that are part of the reason why we recently lowered our growth forecast for the year from 7.5% to 7%. It appears that an arc of instability from Georgia to Texas with points as far north as Missouri ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation expectations remain rational and muted
A look at one of our preferred measurements of inflation expectations implies that the risk of a sustained outbreak of inflation is receding just as another set of inflation data—the Consumer Price Index for June—is set to publish on Tuesday. Inflation expectations play an important role in spending and investment decisions, in addition to determining ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Improving labor market signals increased consumer confidence and spending
There is no doubt that an economic recovery is unfolding. Since the beginning of the year, initial claims for unemployment benefits have been in general decline, falling from 900,000 per week to roughly 370,000 recently. This drop in unemployment claims coincides with a steady increase in consumer confidence. As measured by the weekly values of the ... READ MORE >