An overheating economy and hot summer weather have put the American public on edge as rising inflation has deflated domestic purchasing power. Hot tempers and hotter thermostats may, however, find some relief during the final six weeks of summer through an easing in gasoline prices. Wholesale ... READ MORE >
Can a price cap on Russian oil work?
The United States is urging its trade partners to adopt a novel proposal that would put a cap on the price of Russian oil during a time of shortcomings in global production. It’s a creative idea, but it carries risks and could result in another surge in oil prices. Middle market firms need to ... READ MORE >
The return of king dollar: The greenback in an era of inflation
The return of inflation, interest rate differentials and a quickly changing geopolitical landscape are the primary catalysts behind the recent surge in the value of the American dollar. With the Federal Reserve set to boost the policy rate by at the very least 200 basis points over the remainder of ... READ MORE >
U.S. June CPI: Persistent top-line inflation hits 9.1%
The past few years have been characterized by a series of economic shocks that have wreaked havoc with just about every area of the American economy. The most recent set of energy shocks has sent the top-line consumer price index to 9.1%, a four decade high, on the back of an 11.2% increase in ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report for June indicates no recession now
An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs in any given month, as the June employment report showed on Friday. The data released by the Labor Department strongly implied that the economy is not in recession, which is in line with our base case that the economy will ... READ MORE >
U.S. June jobs preview: Slower hiring in rate-sensitive industries
We expect the June U.S. employment report to show a total gain of 225,000 jobs, with risk of a stronger pace of hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Given the Federal Reserve’s campaign to increase the policy rate that has reshaped economic expectations, we expect a reduced pace of ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a slowing industrial sector
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in June, signaling a slowdown in overall economic activity. The reading of 1.1 standard deviations below normal suggests that tighter financial conditions and the energy shock are taking a toll on the industrial sector. Our index is a composite of surveys ... READ MORE >
Preparing for a tsunami of imported goods
The recent reopening of China’s factory floors and the easing of its supply chain bottlenecks have prompted discussion about the ability of the U.S. supply chain to absorb what will be a tsunami of imported goods. With the value of the dollar rising, which lowers the cost of imported goods, demand for ... READ MORE >
The American housing deficit and what it takes to close it
Over the past 15 years, the United States has not built enough houses to keep up with growing demand. The problem intensified during the pandemic as demand skyrocketed because of the shift to working from home and historically low mortgage rates encouraged this move. We estimate that at the end of ... READ MORE >
Midyear update: An economy on knife’s edge as inflation bites
Gradually, then suddenly: That is how Mike Campbell, a character in Ernest Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises,” answered the question on how he went bankrupt. It’s also an apt way to think about how the United States goes into a recession. While there are always signs of financial stress and ... READ MORE >