Despite the hype and scare tactics around a well-telegraphed restart date, we estimate that it will result in only a 0.3 percentage point drag on GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: No rate hike as Fed implies soft landing
The Fed maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession. … READ MORE >
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
Why the Fed should lift its 2% inflation target
We expect the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting next week and would advise the Fed to begin shaping expectations about a likely cyclical peak at that range. … READ MORE >
Potential impact of UAW strike would not be sufficient to cause recession
Our back-of-the-envelope estimate indicates that the economy would suffer a modest 0.1% drag during the current quarter should the action last for a month. … READ MORE >
As financing costs surge, the real economy faces a reckoning: Rising loan costs are squeezing middle market firms
As the era of easy money and low-cost financing ends, middle market businesses are facing a reckoning.
Rising real interest rates are pushing up the cost of commercial and industrial loans, making it harder for these firms to meet payrolls and finance their expansion, according to a new survey from RSM US LLP. The result is a risk to economic growth across the real economy and, potentially, a recession. … READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Labor market continues to cool
In August, the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate settled in at 3.8%, according to Labor Department data released on Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Signs of a bottom
Only two of the five manufacturing centers surveyed by regional Federal Reserve banks, New York and Dallas, reported substantial declines Philadelphia and Kansas City reported substantial increases, while Richmond had a slight increase. … READ MORE >
Rates outlook: As economy enters glide path, bond market hedges its bets
Even as the economy shows positive trends like slowing inflation and a healthy labor market, the bond market is showing anxiety. … READ MORE >
U.S. July jobs report: Gradual and orderly cooling in the labor market
The 187,000 net change in total employment and a 3.5% unemployment rate in July show cooling demand by firms as the economy grows near its 1.8% long-term trend. … READ MORE >