The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index increased in March but is showing signs of impending economic damage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. … READ MORE >
That ’70s Show: Lessons from the oil shortages of nearly 50 years ago
The doubling of gasoline prices in 1979 and 1980 came during the turmoil that followed Iran’s revolution and the beginning of Iran’s decade-long war with Iraq. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index posted the best result in a year
As much of the world prepares for a post-COVID phase, we believe that the worst of domestic supply chain issues are in the rear-view mirror. Yet rising infections in some countries, along with geopolitical tensions, could delay a full return to normal. … READ MORE >
FOMC’s policy decision: Rate hike, balance sheet reduction, revise down forecast, repeat
Policy normalization at the Federal Reserve took a giant step forward on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis points while slashing its growth forecast and increasing its estimate of inflation. … READ MORE >
Life during wartime: Inflation, price controls and economic conflict
Today, with inflation at a 40-year high and a policy rate pinned to the zero boundary, policymakers face significant constraints as they try to find ways to mitigate rising costs on American households. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Powell caught in the crossfire
Next Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will result in the central bank hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 0.25% and 0.5%. … READ MORE >
Preview of coming attractions: Inflation surges to 7.9%
The February consumer price index provided an unpleasant preview of coming attractions in the U.S. economy as top-line inflation soared by 0.8% on the month, pushing the year-ago reading to 7.9%, the fastest rate in 40 years. … READ MORE >
Consumer choice, self-rationing and preparing for shortages
The war in Ukraine, the cutoff of Russian exports and the possible removal of roughly 4.3 million barrels of crude from U.S. and European markets are likely to have a harmful impact on household balance sheets. … READ MORE >
As global tensions rise, RSM US Financial Conditions Index deteriorates
Our composite RSM U.S. Financial Conditions Index is falling, reaching nearly one standard deviation below zero as the situation in Ukraine continues to threaten trade and global financial stability. … READ MORE >
U.S. February jobs report: Bittersweet symphony as employment rises by 678,000
Despite a net increase in total employment of 678,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.8% in February, the improvement in the American labor market is now in the rear-view mirror as the impact of geopolitical tensions and inflation sets in. … READ MORE >