The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index receded again in January, providing another indication of the direct effect of the omicron variant on the business community and a sign of the eventual moderation of the post-crisis surge in growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs preview: Stick a giant omicron asterisk on the January report
The omicron variant has almost surely created significant distortions in the American workforce that will become evident when the jobs report for January is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Reflation, and the risks that remain
The last in a series of articles regarding monetary and fiscal policy as the economy restarts within a changing framework of labor force choices, automation and pricing. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP increases 6.9% in fourth quarter
The American economy closed out last year on an upbeat note, finishing with a 6.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted annualized pace, the fastest pace since the 7.2% rate in 1984. … READ MORE >
Fed to use conventional and unconventional tools to obtain price stability
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled that it intends to use both conventional and unconventional tools to address risks to the economic outlook caused by inflation. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Omicron variant will extract a powerful economic toll
The omicron variant has caused many people to pull back on work and spending, which is why we have downgraded our first quarter growth forecast for gross domestic product to 1.5%. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Shaping expectations for a major policy shift
Expect the FOMC to lay the groundwork for a major policy shift that includes a rate hike in March, another in June, and a balance sheet runoff likely to start in June or July. … READ MORE >
How the Fed plans to use its balance sheet to craft a soft landing
The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is little understood, but it may end up challenging the conventional wisdom that the Fed will raise its policy rate four times this year. … READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Why the natural rate of interest is key to Fed policy
The natural rate of interest, also known as r-start, forms the basis for setting the Fed’s overnight policy rate and, by extension, interest rates across all maturities. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: The worst may have passed, but choppy waters remain
The strength of the supply chain in the United States showed significant improvement for a second straight month in December after reaching a two-decade low in October, according to the newest data from the RSM US Supply Chain Index. … READ MORE >