Financial conditions in the United States continue to be highly favorable for investment despite the recent rise in some asset classes, according to the new RSM US Financial Conditions Index. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter
Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to global supply chains and rising inflation have dampened American household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. … READ MORE >
Hispanic ascendant: challenges, opportunities and the real economy
Given the growth and economic power of the Hispanic community in the United States, we believe it will strengthen the backbone of the real economy, helping the country solve a range of issues in the post-pandemic world, such as labor shortages, dampened population growth, and structural economic changes. … READ MORE >
Inflation remains elevated as supply chain disruptions persist
Inflation continued to move at or near the top of its pandemic-induced pace in September with the overall Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 5.4% on an annual basis. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Commercial paper points to strong corporate recovery
Commercial paper issuance is strong and resembles the robust recovery in corporate activity that took place after the financial crisis. The level of commercial paper outstanding is mirroring the increase in economic activity that began in the fourth quarter of last year. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: The ‘real’ unemployment rate is 8.2%
The headline U3 unemployment rate of 4.8% for September is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States. … READ MORE >
How $15 an hour became the de-facto minimum wage
A new de-facto entry-level wage of $15 per hour is becoming the national standard in the private sector. The shock to the economy unleashed by the pandemic and the response by workers have radically transformed the wage-earning landscape. … READ MORE >
September U.S. jobs report: One-time factors dampen hiring as unemployment rate falls to 4.8%
Widespread disruption to supply chains, the impact of Hurricane Ida, modest delays in the reopening of schools and day care centers and seasonal noise in the employment data all combined to dampen hiring in September. … READ MORE >
In a possible sign of things to come, looming debt-ceiling crisis induces a flight to cash
The front end of the Treasury curve is flashing red because of the possibility of another black swan event—the threat of default on Treasury securities on or around Oct. 18. … READ MORE >
U.S. September jobs preview: Expect a modest gain amid special factors and seasonal adjustments
The U.S. September employment report will most likely feature a net change in total employment of 375,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.1% when it is released on Friday. … READ MORE >