Our base case remains that the Federal Reserve’s policy rate will peak between 5% and 5.25% and stay there until early next year. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP: Resilient growth closes out a challenging year
A resilient American economy grew by 2.9% during the final three months of last year because of a strong increase in demand for services by consumers, fixed business investment and inventory restocking. … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Improving policies in future crises
Nearly three years into the pandemic, we can use the experience of these programs to understand what worked and be better prepared for the next health or financial crisis. … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Main Street Lending Program
The Main Street Lending Program was the Federal Reserve’s most direct intervention in the bank loan market since in the 1930s and 1940s … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Paycheck Protection Program
The American economy was facing an abyss in March 2020, but because of forceful action by the fiscal and monetary authorities, it rebounded faster than expected. … READ MORE >
Shipping costs from China plunge, helping ease inflation
Shipping costs from Shanghai to American seaports reached a peak last January, decelerated during the first half of the year and have plunged since June. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
Top-line inflation declined by 0.1% on the month in December and increased by 6.5% on an annual basis. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial markets in the new year
Financial markets have started the year facing a host of challenges, including the prospect of a stand-off over the debt ceiling in a divided Congress and the possibility of a recession later this year. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
The American economy added 223,000 jobs in December, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and wages increased by 4.6%. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Strong close to year as wages remain elevated
We expect the December U.S. jobs report on Friday to show an increase in total employment of 220,000 positions. … READ MORE >








