The futures prices of the benchmark West Texas Intermediate have fallen below $61 per barrel over the next 12 months on news that OPEC+ intends to increase production. … READ MORE >
Labor market loses steam as hiring rises by 22,000 in August
The slow hire, slow fire economy remained intact in August as the demand for new workers continued to sag, resulting in the creation of 22,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The declining labor supply, the jobless rate and Fed policy
If the labor force participation rate had held at its 2023-24 average of 62.6% and all else remained the same, the unemployment rate would be sitting near 4.85% compared with the current 4.24%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. August jobs report to show mild gain of 45,000
We anticipate that the unemployment rate will climb to 4.3% while average hourly earnings will advance by 0.3% on the month. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Investors demanding rising compensation on long-dated government debt
Even as central banks cut policy rates and push rates down at the front end of the curve, investors are demanding a greater premium for holding longer-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Rising inflation, increased spending complicate Fed’s next decision
While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising input prices curb appetite for capital expenditure investment
Manufacturers continue to expect higher input prices while holding mixed expectations regarding capital expenditure in the next six months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Europe’s de-industrial moment
As China continues to flood its external market with cheap goods, Germany finds itself to be a willing partner, trading its low value-added manufacturing sector for the disinflation of cheap goods. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The $12 trillion repo market means de-dollarization is improbable
The euro, yuan, pound and yen do not have the adequate depth to support the liquidity needs of the global systematically important banks. … READ MORE >









