American personal income increased robustly in July, likely because of the expanded child tax credit that we think will bolster overall spending by roughly $35 billion this year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Why the Fed is likely to talk about the unemployment gap at Jackson Hole
The focus on economic inequality and how monetary policy can address it is at the core of the Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed on Friday. The symposium features the theme of “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy.” … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Shipping costs reach 11-year high
The rise of the delta variant in Asia combined with surging demand around the world have sent shipping costs higher, which will show up in higher costs of imported goods as supply chain problems persist. … READ MORE >
Jackson Hole preview: Delta variant, tapering, inequality and climate change in focus for the Fed
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is in no hurry to front run the FOMC and announce the timing, magnitude and roadmap of tapering operations that we expect to start in December. What is more likely is that Powell will emphasize the risk to the economic outlook linked to the delta variant. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Inflation expectations remain subdued
At present, and because of greater price volatility due to the sudden reopening of the economy, the surge in consumer demand and subsequent supply chain issues, expectations are for the inflation rate in the next few years to move above 2.3% before settling back to roughly 2.25% over time. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims decline ahead of expected delta-driven turbulence
First-time jobless claims declined to 348,000 for the week ending Aug. 14, 2021, from a previous upwardly revised 377,000. … READ MORE >
July Consumer Price Index: Inflation moderates and likely posts cyclical peak at 5.4%
The five-month surge in inflation has most likely resulted in a cyclical peak, reaching 5.4% in July on the back of a 0.5% increase on the month. … READ MORE >
Inflation and small firms: The restaurant squeeze is on
The recent surge in inflation is now a significant issue for smaller firms, and nowhere is this more evident than in the restaurant industry. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: How the “real” unemployment rate affects policy decisions
Even as the Labor Department reported on Friday that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.4%, it is probably an undercount. That’s not the intention, but instead stems from the long-held methodology of how the Labor Department determines who is in the labor force and who is not. … READ MORE >