Upward pressure on the Canadian dollar will have positive effects on the value of Canadian output, with increased demand for its products and increased buying power for Canadian consumers having a positive impact on both U.S. and Canadian economies. … READ MORE >
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Fracking gives Texas and New Mexico swing-state status
We can anticipate increased consumer demand for energy, especially given the rapid advances in vaccine distribution. But whether price increases are sustainable or more North American wells come back online is speculation because of the potential of market interference. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.0% for February is likely an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. While the topline change in net employment after adding in back revisions was 1.072 million, it will likely be later in 2022 before the economy returns to full employment, which we define as somewhere near 3.5%. … READ MORE >
March jobs report blows past expectations with best still to come
An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report. … READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
We are proposing the development of an independent infrastructure bank that would operate as the fiscal equivalent of the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Understanding what is involved in a $2 trillion infrastructure project
A project that modernizes the national infrastructure means increased jobs, productivity and growth, all of which will result in a meaningful increase in the living standards for Americans. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rational exuberance and the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
The manufacturing sector is signaling extreme confidence in a rapid end to the pandemic-induced economic shutdown and to the global manufacturing recession that preceded it. … READ MORE >
March employment preview: Expect a gain of 1 million jobs
We expect a net increase in total employment of 1 million, with risk of a much larger gain, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8% when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths is creating preconditions for what we expect to be a robust three-year economic recovery in the United Kingdom. This is captured by the recent improvement in domestic financial conditions to just under one standard deviation above neutral. … READ MORE >