Government transfers from the end-of-year $908 billion fiscal aid package were the primary catalyst for the 10% increase in income and the 2.4% jump in spending, a robust kickoff to what is going to be one of the more memorable years in economic activity in decades. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Only cold comfort for those out of work
Seasonal distortions caused a larger-than-expected decline in first-time jobless claims to 730,000 for the week ending Feb. 20, which significantly understates the true pace of first-time firings across the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Leading indicator points toward economic reflation
The Conference Board’s leading economic indicator continues to point toward a reflation of the economy from the shock of the pandemic, rising at a monthly rate of 0.5%. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The 10-year Treasury yield goes its own way
Fixed-income investors are clearly pricing in a general reflation of the economy this year that will produce growth rates not observed since the late 1990’s. … READ MORE >
Inflation-adjusted interest rates and investment in the future of Canada’s economy
A confluence of events and policy shifts has coalesced into a unique opportunity for the Canadian government and firms to make long-term strategic investments. … READ MORE >
With negative real interest rates, the time for U.K. firms to invest in their future is now
A confluence of events and policy shifts has coalesced into a unique opportunity for the U.K. government and U.K. firms to make long-term strategic investments. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The rising cost of eating at home and the lower cost of driving
The overall cost of living remains subdued, with the Consumer Price Index rising 1.4% in January. Over the past six months, the headline inflation rate has remained muted and stands below the Federal Reserve’s 2% implicit target necessary for increased demand and sustainable growth. … READ MORE >
Global fiscal policy: Reflation led by fiscal firepower
The policy response by governments and central banks around the world has focused on the integration of fiscal and monetary policy to offset the impact of the pandemic and create the conditions for economic expansion. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The bond market’s assessment of governance and economic risk
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds continues to move above 1%, reaching 1.15% last week for the first time since the end of last February, when the severity of the coronavirus outbreak was becoming apparent. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index reaches neutral – a platform for growth
Despite the dark winter caused by the global pandemic, financial conditions in England have moved in a constructive direction that can support a near-term economic recovery and expansion in 2022. … READ MORE >