Initial jobless claims declined to 364,000 for the week ending June 26, resuming their downward trend following a few weeks of flat to down readings.
The weekly number is the lowest posting of the pandemic and indicative of what we expect to be a downward march toward pre-pandemic levels in first-time claims of 200,000 to 230,000.
Even with the decline, there are still 14.6 million people receiving some form of unemployment insurance. Of the major programs, 3.2 million are on regular state benefits, 5.9 million are receiving federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and 5.2 million are on federal Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation.
As benefits begin to be withdrawn, one should expect both the traditional claims and non-traditional claims data associated with pandemic assistance and emergency compensation to begin to ease.
For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.