For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Jobless claims are persistent drag on economic recovery
Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of Americans are unemployed and face longstanding ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Americans with no job for 27 weeks or more rises sharply
The number of Americans without a job for 27 weeks or more rose in August to the highest level in three years. The reason this matters? Labor market studies by the Federal Reserve show that individuals who experience joblessness for more than 26 weeks face increasing risk of becoming permanently detached ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Mixed picture for initial jobless claims in week ended Aug. 29
The number of initial jobless claims fell in the week ended Aug. 29 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 from 1.01 million in the prior week. But data from the Labor Department, which announced changes to its methodology on Thursday to factor out pandemic distortions, doesn't tell the whole picture. Despite ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Weekly initial jobless claims higher than expected
In a sobering surprise, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 reached a higher-than-expected 1.1 million, a sign the road to economic recovery will be bumpy and volatile as the country struggles to gain footing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pipeline pressures remain muted amid inflation fears
Headline consumer and producer prices in July both exceeded consensus expectations, prompting worry about rising prices. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey of five-10-year inflation expectations is at 3%, the highest level since 2016 as the global pandemic has impacted a wide array of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY–OpenTable data show restaurants face long road to recovery
Retail sales increased for a third straight month in July, though at a slower pace than expected. While the total value of retail purchases is back above pre-pandemic levels, with July purchases up 2.7 percent year over year, the moderation in monthly activity to 1.2%, versus 7.5% in June, shows the path ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. The insured unemployment rate represents the number of people currently receiving ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer prices surged in July, glossing over looming food insecurity
Core consumer prices in July gained the most since January 1991, as many categories of consumer goods stabilized after the initial broad pandemic-induced lockdowns. While news headlines may seem to paint a picture of a new inflationary environment, excess capacity in the economy remains disinflationary ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Small business optimism fades and wage stagnation hits employees
The National Federation of Independent Business compensation index points toward wage stagnation as small firms adjust to an impaired U.S. economy. Similar to what occurred following the Great Recession, we expect wage stagnation to characterize the compensation outlook for some time. Even essential ... READ MORE >