Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Jobless claims are persistent drag on economic recovery
Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Americans with no job for 27 weeks or more rises sharply
Labor market studies by the Federal Reserve show that individuals who experience joblessness for more than 26 weeks face increasing risk of becoming permanently detached from the labor force, contributing to structural unemployment in the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Mixed picture for initial jobless claims in week ended Aug. 29
The number of initial jobless claims fell in the week ended Aug. 29 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 from 1.01 million in the prior week. But data from the Labor Department, which announced changes to its methodology on Thursday to factor out pandemic distortions, doesn’t tell the whole picture. Despite the week over week decline in claims, the number of people seeking relief from other programs, including a government-sponsored pandemic relief program, were up. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Weekly initial jobless claims higher than expected
In a sobering surprise, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 reached a higher-than-expected 1.1 million, a sign the road to economic recovery will be bumpy and volatile as the country struggles to gain footing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pipeline pressures remain muted amid inflation fears
Headline consumer and producer prices in July both exceeded consensus expectations, prompting worry about rising prices. Meanwhile, a look closer at price pressures along the production chain suggests there is less near-term inflation fear than meets the eye. Year-over-year core producer prices and final demand are both negative, reflecting diminished pricing power for firms. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY–OpenTable data show restaurants face long road to recovery
While the total value of retail purchases is back above pre-pandemic levels, the path to recovery remains steep. Our chart of the day shows OpenTable seated diners surged in mid-June as much of the economy rushed to reopen, but the levels are now more than 50% lower than this time last year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
As we enter week 22 of pandemic-induced job losses, the increase in the duration of unemployment is becoming worrisome. The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer prices surged in July, glossing over looming food insecurity
Despite strong July upticks in consumer prices overall, our chart of the day shows a 0.4% month-over-month decline in consumer food prices, likely the result of households preparing for a loss of income due to the congressional impasse over the extension of expanded unemployment insurance benefits. If policymakers fail to reach an agreement by Sept. 1, food insecurity will likely become an unfortunate front page topic after the Labor Day holiday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Small business optimism fades and wage stagnation hits employees
The National Federation of Independent Business compensation index points toward wage stagnation as small firms adjust to an impaired U.S. economy. … READ MORE >