It reduces the risk of a further sharp rise in energy prices, should limit the rise in inflation, will reduce the impetus for rate hikes and reduces the risk of recession. However, another bout of stagflation for the UK still looks unavoidable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The right, and wrong, way to ease UK energy prices
The challenge for policymakers is to do it in a way that preserves incentives while protecting the most vulnerable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: UK gilts more vulnerable than other countries
Gilts have underperformed their U.S. and European counterparts, with short-dated yields in particular seeing some of the largest increases in the G7. … READ MORE >
The UK Autumn Budget: An exercise in can kicking
The risk now is that initial positive market reactions wane over the next few days and weeks as more details from this complex budget become clearer. … READ MORE >
RSM UK’s outlook for 2026: Fiscal contraction brings short-term pain
A large fiscal contraction combined with weak consumer confidence and sagging business sentiment means we expect growth of only 0.8% in 2026. … READ MORE >
UK financial conditions provide tailwind amid fiscal uncertainty
Financial conditions in the UK imply a solid tailwind for growth from the financial sector even as uncertainty over fiscal policy weighs heavily on the real economy, where hiring has slowed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: UK financial conditions are supportive of growth
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index stands at 1.4 standard deviations above neutral, which is providing a strong tailwind behind domestic economic activity. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Divergent paths on rates
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
The U.S.-UK trade agreement that isn’t
A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding that over time may yield a productive framework for trade or not. … READ MORE >
Global central bank policy pivot continues as ECB cuts rate
The rate cuts in Europe and Canada are likely to be followed by the Bank of England in August and the Fed this fall. … READ MORE >