The impact of two major hurricanes and labor strikes in the past two months on initial jobless claim data has completely faded, as the metric fell to 217,000 last week, lower than the pre-pandemic average. The continued drop in new filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, should suggest ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment in November rises to highest level since April
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to the highest level since April as gasoline prices continued to fall and inflation concerns eased. According to the University of Michigan's survey in November, the sentiment index increased to 73 from 70.5 with expectations leading the increase. The election should not ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence strengthens despite cooling labor demand
The drop in job openings and the rebound in consumer confidence are consistent with a soft-landing scenario, which we believe has been the reality in recent months. While the lower number of job vacancies signaled reduced demand pressure in September, hirings improved while job quits continued to ... READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls in September, but orders pick up
Durable goods orders fell in September for the second month in a row, driven largely by drops in Boeing orders. According to the Commerce Department, orders for goods that last three years or more fell 0.8% on a monthly basis, following a downward revision of another 0.8% drop in August. However, our ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall despite hurricane’s impact
The fall in initial jobless claims last week aligns with a strong labor market, despite the recent impact of Hurricane Milton. Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Florida’s new filings for claims spiked last week, ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits ease in September
Housing starts and building permits pulled back in September after a red-hot August, suggesting that the road to a housing market rebound won’t be smooth, even as interest rates drop. The market remains demand-driven, with the current and future supply of new homes staying below the threshold for a ... READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
American consumers remained upbeat about the economy in September as spending at retail stores and online exceeded consensus forecasts. Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. Our forecasts had called for a 0.5% increase for both numbers, so the ... READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The U.S. economy generated 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% as growth continues to barrel along at or above a 3% pace. When taken out to three digits, the jobless rate was 4.051%, which means it narrowly missed the Federal Reserve’s 4% ... READ MORE >