Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. The strong month, which followed a flat month in September, suggested that, at least for now, a recession was not at hand. Sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% with broad-based increases. Nine of ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June at 50, according to survey data released Friday. Both sentiment over current conditions and future expectations deteriorated significantly, ... READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. With the data on job openings coming out hotter than expected this week, the imbalance between labor demand and supply continued to keep ... READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. There were 1.9 job vacancies for each unemployed worker, near a record high, according to data from the Labor Department released ... READ MORE >
Inflation persists as spending rebounds strongly in September
Government data released Friday indicates that the Federal Reserve will need to keep its foot on the gas pedal: while inflation data came out slightly better than expected, the key wage inflation metric—the employment cost index—remained elevated, according to the Labor Department. On top of that, ... READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
New home sales dropped 10.9% to 603,000 in September from August, continuing the downtrend since a recent high in late 2020, according to data from the Census Bureau. Since the start of the year, U.S. sales have dropped more than 28% in total as housing demand has slumped. The steep rise in mortgage ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls in October amid inflation concern
Consumer confidence fell below expectations in October as inflation concern persists. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was down to 102.5 from 107.8 from a month earlier. Consumers' expectations for the median inflation over the next 12 months rose to 6.2% from 6.0%, the highest in three ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly last week despite the impact of Hurricane Ian in Florida. New claims fell by 5.3% to 214,000, below the pre-pandemic average in 2019 as layoffs remain historically low, according to government data released Thursday. In the bigger context, new ... READ MORE >
U.S. housing starts continue to fall amid rate hikes
New housing starts fell by 8.1% in September as the impact of rising mortgage rates worked through the housing market, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. There were 1.4 million housing starts on an annualized basis in September, significantly lower than the 1.7 million that we see as needed to ... READ MORE >