Durable goods orders and shipments posted sharp increases in October, defying recession fears, while jobless claims increased last week. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index returns to pre-pandemic level
Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and initial jobless claims give Fed mixed signals
The housing market continued to cool, but not the labor market, government data showed. … READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. … READ MORE >
Inflation persists as spending rebounds strongly in September
Friday’s macro data drop continued to require the Federal Reserve to have its foot on the pedal: while inflation data came out slightly better than expected, the key wage inflation metric—the employment cost index—remained elevated, according to the Labor Department. On top of that, spending was much better than expected in September together with an upward revision to August’s print. That means the economy can absorb more monetary tightening. … READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
The steep rise in mortgage rates has been the number one reason for the fall in demand. As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, mortgage rates have spiked to a multi-decade high of more than 7%. … READ MORE >