The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. The core PCE index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, advanced by 0.1% and increased ... READ MORE >
Slower growth raises prospect of a Fed rate cut
Economic growth appeared much softer in the first five months of the year following the release of key economic data on Thursday. Slower-than-anticipated growth should push the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates. Read more of RSM's insights on the economy, manufacturing and the middle ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims ease as housing starts drop
Initial jobless claims dropped by 5,000 last week to 238,000 yet remained elevated near a 10-month high. For now, the spike in new claims in the previous weeks looks a lot more like a seasonal issue than a deterioration in labor market conditions. In contrast, housing starts fell in May to the lowest ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and industrial production rise in May
The soft rebound in May’s retail sales was good news, suggesting that the economy might reach a soft landing sooner than expected. Total sales increased by 0.1% while the control group, which is the key metric that feeds into gross domestic production calculations, rose by 0.4%. Read more of RSM's ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls more than expected
Consumer sentiment dropped to 65.6 in June, a seven-month low, which was much less than expected with declining sentiment on personal finances as the focus, according to the University of Michigan survey released on Friday. The subindex for personal finances fell to 79, the lowest since October. The ... READ MORE >
PCE inflation preview: From noise to norm, rate cuts are on the horizon
Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. This will appear in the forecast table as a 0.10% estimate. But we ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
Initial jobless claims jumped to 242,000 for the week ending June 8 from 229,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The latest figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. It ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index cools in May as gas and transportation costs decline
A gradual cooling in inflation in May because of a 3.6% decline in gasoline prices, a 1.1% drop in transportation costs and 0.5% easing in the cost of new vehicles shows that the rise in inflation at the start of the year was more noise than signal. Overall, the consumer price index increased by 3.3% ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall to the lowest level since February 2021
The labor market continued to cool at an encouraging pace as elevated interest rates weighed further on overall demand. Job openings fell to 8.06 million in April from a downwardly revised 8.36 million in the previous month, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. The ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity slows in May
Softer manufacturing sentiment in May is within our expectations as elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall goods demand. The Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 48.7 from 49.2, the lowest level in three months. Over a period of time, a reading above 48.7 indicates ... READ MORE >