The University of Michigan reported on Friday that consumer sentiment and inflation expectations improved in the second half of May. This may be welcome news after the Federal Reserve seemed less sure about whether interest rates were sufficiently restrictive or not. The effect of high interest rates ... READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales miss forecasts amid rising mortgage rates
New home sales fell below estimates in April as mortgage rates surged to above 7%. The data, released by the Census Bureau on Thursday, pointed to a disappointing month for housing sales, following the drop in April’s existing home sales released on Wednesday. The rebound in inflation in the first ... READ MORE >
Forecasts show softer April PCE inflation
Details from April’s consumer price index and producer price index reports this week implied a slightly softer month for the personal consumption expenditures index. We think the top-line PCE inflation will most likely come in at 0.25% for April, down from 0.30% in March, while the core index will slow ... READ MORE >
Soft housing and manufacturing data fuels prospect of rate cut
Economic data on housing, manufacturing and jobs released on Thursday pointed to softer-than-expected economic activity in the second quarter. Most notably was April’s data on housing starts and permits, which not only came in below estimates, but prior readings were also revised down. Rising mortgage ... READ MORE >
CPI resumes disinflationary trend in April amid weakened retail sales
The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve's effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Retail sales, in another key report released on Wednesday, indicated a much weaker April, explaining the extended ... READ MORE >
Producer price offers mixed result ahead of CPI release
The producer price index increased by 0.5% in April, above estimates, as both goods and services prices accelerated, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Tuesday. The increase, however, was offset by a downward revision to March’s number, from a 0.2% increase to a 0.1% decline. That ... READ MORE >
Interest rate volatility: Why Fed policy guidance is less effective
In less than a year, the 10-year yield has moved more than 350 basis points in both directions, a volatility not seen since the financial crisis. The MOVE Index, a measure of bond market volatility, has experienced what can politely be called excessive volatility since the Federal Reserve started ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer sentiment plunges on rising inflation
The sharp drop in consumer sentiment in May seems more like an overreaction to rising gasoline prices and overall inflation, rather than a reliable indicator for future spending. Inflation expectations rose sharply to 3.5% from 3.2% for the next 12 months while longer-term expectations inched up to ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise to the highest level since August
Initial jobless claims rose by 231,000, the highest level since August, for the week ending May. 4 partly because of a one-time surge in New York as school vacations began. At the same time, new filings rose in many other states as well in a sign of rising layoffs and a cooling labor market. But the ... READ MORE >
Senior Loan Officer Survey: Progress halts as inflation rebounds in Q1
Progress toward normalization in lending practices generally halted in the first quarter as the Federal Reserve turned more hawkish amid the rebound in inflation, according to data in a Fed report released on Monday. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices showed that demand ... READ MORE >