Retail sales rebounded in February, showing that the sharp drop in January was likely more noise than trend, according to data from the Commerce Department on Thursday. Once the seasonal factors in January’s data faded away, overall spending at retail stores, restaurants and online remained solid ... READ MORE >
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
The consumer price index increased at a robust rate in February for the second month in a row though this increase was not a surprise given the recent rise in gasoline prices, and, more importantly, the noise in housing inflation data. The top-line and core CPI numbers both grew at 0.4% on the ... READ MORE >
Job openings inch down as economy stays on track for a soft landing
While the job openings data released on Wednesday continued to show a tight labor market in January, it remained on a downward trend toward normalization. Job openings cooled in back-to-back months to 8.86 million in January with December's figure revised down to 8.89 million from 9.03 million ... READ MORE >
Service sector continues to grow in February
The service sector continued to grow in February for the 14th straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. While the overall service index pointed to a slightly slower February, falling to 52.6 from 53.4, the subindexes for business activity and new orders registered ... READ MORE >
Softer economic data helps ease inflation concerns
The softer data in manufacturing activities, construction spending and consumer sentiment at the beginning of the year should alleviate some of the recent concerns regarding the rebound in inflation. The manufacturing sector, as indicated by the ISM manufacturing index, has been in contraction mode for ... READ MORE >
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve's closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. We are not too worried about the strong inflation print because of all the seasonal factors involved. ... READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Despite what you might read or hear, the stock market is not the economy. But that does not mean you should ignore the effect that the stock market has on household income and spending, the labor market, overall financial conditions and economic growth. A 2021 paper in the American Economic Review ... READ MORE >
Softer economic data reaffirms prospect of a soft landing
The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary stance showed that it continues to affect the economy in the first two months of the year. In other words, the Fed is getting closer to its goal of achieving a soft landing when the economy cools back down to a sustainable level of growth with inflation under ... READ MORE >
New home sales grew more slowly in January amid elevated mortgage rates
Sales of new homes grew by 1.5% in January, much slower than the 7.2% increase in December, most likely because of elevated mortgage rates. January's sales were also lower than estimated while December's increase was revised down from the 8% increase reported earlier by the Census Bureau. Slower sales ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest in a month
Initial claims for unemployment insurance have once again defied expectations this year, continuing to signal a tight labor market that benefits workers. New claims fell by 12,000 to 201,000 for the week ending Feb. 17, according to the Labor Department's data on Thursday. With the exception of a ... READ MORE >