The soft rebound in May’s retail sales was good news, suggesting that the economy might reach a soft landing sooner than expected. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls more than expected
Consumer sentiment dropped to 65.6 in June, a seven-month low, which was much less than expected with declining sentiment on personal finances as the focus, according to the University of Michigan survey. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation preview: From noise to norm, rate cuts are on the horizon
Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
The weekly initial jobless claims figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index cools in May as gas and transportation costs decline
The encouraging May CPI data released by the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to be the first in a string of constructive inflation reports that will define policy normalization at the Fed. … READ MORE >
Job openings fall to the lowest level since February 2021
The labor market continued to cool at an encouraging pace as elevated interest rates weighed further on overall demand. Job openings fell to 8.06 million in April from a downwardly revised 8.36 million in the previous month, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity slows in May
Softer manufacturing sentiment in May is within our expectations as elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall goods demand. … READ MORE >
Spending cools more than expected as Fed contemplates rate cuts
American consumers pulled back in April as a sign of elevated interest rates weighing further on overall demand as the pandemic fiscal supports wane. … READ MORE >
GDP and inflation grew slower than earlier estimates
GDP was revised down to 1.3% from 1.6% earlier, while personal consumption was revised down to 2.0% from 2.5%, according to Commerce Department data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Consumer inflation expectations moderate in May
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that consumer sentiment and inflation expectations improved in the second half of May. … READ MORE >