The rise in transportation and warehousing employment in April can be attributed to businesses front-running the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Blog
Trade shocks, employment and the coming recession
Another disruption to U.S. supply chains through trade policy will mark the end of the current business cycle as the economy slips into recession. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: April was the cruelest month. Now, all eyes are on the Fed.
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of April 28, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here’s the latest. … READ MORE >
Last call on the current business cycle? U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April.
The labor market expanded at a solid pace in April, which should be taken as a positive given the price shock that will soon begin showing up. … READ MORE >
Canada’s weakened financial conditions point to slower growth
Canada’s financial conditions have deteriorated as the prospect of slower economic growth looms in the coming quarters amid tariff-induced uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A brief word about productivity and protectionism
The shift toward protectionism all the more ill-timed given the monumental investment into artificial intelligence and how it will drive innovation and productivity into the next generation. … READ MORE >
On the knife’s edge: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter
The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. heavy truck sales point to slowing economy
Production and sales of heavy trucks are slowing ahead of the shocks linked to tariffs and what will be further declines in demand by households and commercial ventures, data shows. … READ MORE >
What the Liberals’ election win could mean for Canada’s economy
Following the Liberal Party’s election win, a Mark Carney-led government could introduce ambitious economic strategies to contend with ongoing uncertainty. … READ MORE >