A simple exercise that assumes tariffs of 25% across the board and 60% on Chinese goods implies that the U.S. economy over the next decade would be approximately 2% smaller than it otherwise would be. … READ MORE >
Blog
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Jan. 13, 2025
J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference highlights and more in this week’s life sciences update. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: How tariffs fall harder on lower-income households
Tariffs, or import taxes, are inherently regressive, as lower-income households spend a greater proportion of their earnings on day-to-day expenses. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales continued to grow in December
American consumers ended the year on a strong note, with total retail sales rising by 0.4%, … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Regime change and financial conditions
Secular stagnation that for years featured low inflation, low interest rates and plentiful capital has been replaced by competition for capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Inflation improvement stalled in December ahead of price increases
The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The tax over policy uncertainty is rising
Volatility across asset markets has been rising as investors adjust to changes in fiscal, trade and financial policies. Will this volatility spill into the real economy? … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Emerging market currencies at risk of depreciation
Economies with inadequate capital buffers, economic imbalances featuring large import volumes or those with weak financial systems will be at risk to larger-than-anticipated currency depreciations. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Tariffs, supply chain pressures and inflation
There is a link between disruptions to the flow of trade and durable goods inflation. … READ MORE >
Canada’s jobs report exceeds expectations for December
Canada’s jobs report for December exceeded expectations in several ways, a credit to a resilient economy poised to grow as more rate cuts are expected. But the risks of tariffs and trade tension affecting the growth and recovery outlook cannot be ignored. … READ MORE >