Cashless payments are rapidly becoming the norm as the spread of the coronavirus has forced consumers and businesses to change their ways. … READ MORE >
Blog
Initial jobless claims: Potential inflection point
Initial jobless claims for the month of July point to a potential inflection point in the American labor market. July’s data perfectly captured the flattening out of consumer demand and slowing of overall growth in the economy. … READ MORE >
US July employment report preview: Stagnation
We anticipate that there will be no increase in total employment for July following two strong months of worker recalls when the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
In anticipation of speedbumps (or roadblocks) to recovery
Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a question that looms over the economy and the chance for a full recovery: What if people refuse to take it? … READ MORE >
ISM manufacturing gauge hits highest level since March 2019, but recovery is still a long way off
The Institute for Supply Management index, a closely watched measure of U.S. manufacturing activity, rose 1.6 points to 54.2 in July from 52.6 in the previous month, surpassing market expectations of 53.6. … READ MORE >
An SOS for commercial real estate
As the length and severity of the coronavirus pandemic continue wreak havoc on the economy, real estate deals are at best being reworked and at worst falling apart altogether. … READ MORE >
US June personal income and spending: Difficult days for the American household
The American household finds itself under extreme duress as loss of income and jobs caused by the pandemic is on vivid display inside the June U.S. Personal Income and Spending Report. Despite a robust increase in spending, based on income dynamics that are in play during the pandemic, it is quite clear that this is not sustainable and represents the zenith in the release of pent up demand following the reopening of the economy in May. … READ MORE >
Three states report significant increases in initial jobless claims
The grim news from the national increase in initial jobless claims, which are adjusted for seasonal effects, was mitigated somewhat by the state-by-state raw counting of first-time filings for unemployment benefits. … READ MORE >
US gross domestic product: Actual vs. potential output
The current Bloomberg consensus on third quarter growth in gross domestic product is 18% (RSM’s forecast is 14.2%), and that will likely be brought down noticeably in coming days. … READ MORE >
Second-quarter GDP: A historic decline that could have been worse
The 32.9% decline in U.S. gross domestic product is the single largest decline in the report since the collection of the data began in 1947. But the reopening of the economy that begin around May 1 resulted in a far more muted decline that was tracking near 50% in April. … READ MORE >