Since the 1970s, the Federal Reserve has relied on manipulating expectations of short-term interest rates through cuts in its overnight policy rate in response to economic and manufacturing slowdowns. … READ MORE >
Blog
As coronavirus spreads, what are the fiscal and monetary policy options?
Investors over the past few days have priced in three 25 basis-point cuts in the federal funds rate by the end of the year, with the first cut implied by the markets coming in June. This is somewhat misguided, given the nature of the global public health emergency that is … … READ MORE >
Seaports grow quiet amid trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak
While commercial activity as measured by the comings and goings of shipping containers at the Los Angeles/Long Beach seaport has been dropping since the onset of the U.S. trade war, it is now threatened by a health crisis as the coronavirus spreads out of Asia. … READ MORE >
The new tech economy is all about location, location, location
Economic output in the United States is increasingly revealing a geographic divide, with a greater share of gross domestic product being concentrated in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. … READ MORE >
As leveraged loans rise, so do risks for middle market companies
With so much easy capital available, some companies have taken on more than they can chew if the business cycle were to hit the brakes. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP grew an estimated 1.5% in January; household consumption expected to be strongest segment in Q1
The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, … … READ MORE >
Estimating the probability of a recession
Consensus estimates of the probability of a U.S. recession have receded and our analysis of monthly economic data imply that risks of a recession are negligible for the time being. … READ MORE >
As hedge funds struggle, money flows to limited stakes in private equity firms
A number of large, mature investors have taken a greater interest in creating funds dedicated to investing in minority interests in general partners of both open-end funds and closed-end funds. … READ MORE >
For apparel industry, optimism over China trade deal gives way to concerns over virus outbreak
When middle market fashion and apparel leaders weighed moving production from China after the onset of tariffs in the second half of 2019, a global virus outbreak probably wasn’t part of the equation. … READ MORE >
Private equity’s role in health care gains interest in Congress
A bill is working its way through Congress that could have an impact on health care providers, particularly those owned by private equity firms. … READ MORE >